258 FXUS62 KFFC 060808 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 408 AM EDT Mon Aug 6 2018 .SHORT TERM /Today through Tuesday/... Main concern in the short term is coverage and intensity of convection this afternoon/evening and again Tuesday afternoon/ evening. Pattern not expected to change next 36 hours during the short term period with very weak upper flow in between westerlies to our north and light easterlies to our south. Based on persistence from previous two days and hires model guidance, appears coverage of TSRA will be about the same over north GA this afternoon but a little higher over middle GA, though this could be skewed by some hires guidance, such as the NAMnest and one of our local WRF runs that show a larger area of TSRA over middle GA south of KMCN persisting into the evening. Like yesterday, some storms this pm and again Tues pm could become strong with SBCAPE around 2500-3000 J/kg but very weak vertical wind shear. Yesterday's wind reports on IRIS (which uses nearly all MADIS sites) only showed max wind gusts of 29 mph or lower, but would not be surprised if isolated storms see gusts to 40-50 mph. SNELSON .LONG TERM /Tuesday Night through Sunday/... The upper level ridge will flatten Wednesday as a weak trough approaches from the northwest pushing a weakening surface front across the forecast area. This boundary will focus convection through the end of the week across the forecast area. Extended models diverge by the weekend, as far as the upper trough. The GFS maintains a more progressive solution, sliding the trough axis over the forecast area while ECMWF develops a cutoff upper level low around the Mid MS valley, hanging up the passage of the frontal boundary, which would lead to continued high rain/storm chances. Either way good chance pops seem reasonable through the weekend. Guidance temperatures look to be near normal through the periods and see no reason to deviate. Atwell && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 218 AM EDT Mon Aug 6 2018/ AVIATION... 06Z Update... Main concern is coverage of TSRA this afternoon. Fcst indicates coverage will be about the same or perhaps a touch higher than previous two days. Have indicated PROB30 at all forecast points but may need to go TEMPO at KMCN based on expected coverage. No cigs or vsbys restrictions expected. Sfc winds will remain NW to WNW at 4-6kts thru the day. //ATL Confidence...06Z Update... High on all elements. SNELSON && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 93 73 91 73 / 30 30 30 20 Atlanta 92 74 91 74 / 30 20 30 20 Blairsville 86 67 85 67 / 40 40 30 30 Cartersville 93 72 91 72 / 30 20 30 20 Columbus 95 75 93 75 / 30 30 30 20 Gainesville 91 73 89 73 / 30 30 30 20 Macon 94 74 92 74 / 40 30 30 20 Rome 93 72 92 72 / 40 20 30 30 Peachtree City 92 71 91 73 / 30 20 30 20 Vidalia 92 74 91 74 / 40 30 30 20 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SNELSON LONG TERM....Atwell AVIATION...SNELSON