856 FXUS61 KBGM 030550 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 150 AM EDT Fri Aug 3 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Showers and thunderstorms will continue to move through the region tonight through Saturday morning. Some of the rain could be locally heavy. Isolated flooding may be a threat, especially for areas that have already received plenty of rain during the past week. A few scattered light showers on Saturday afternoon are possible before conditions become quiet Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... The evening and overnight updates continue the trend of lowered pops and chances for thunderstorms. Not much happening now with stable conditions and no forcing. Weak waves will lift northeast late tonight and Friday, bringing rain and a few thunderstorms. The first wave should move into NE PA around 3 or 4 am. Temperatures will fall a little further overnight to the mid and upper 60s, close to the dewpoints. 330 pm update... Main concern in the near term remains focused on the potential for heavy rain leading to flash flooding. The Flash Flood Watch has been extended into Chenango, Delaware and Otsego counties in central NY, and extended through Saturday morning. The forecast continues to be very challenging in terms of attempting to determine when and where the heavy rain will set up. A weak embedded mid level s/w will move quickly sw to ne through the area later tonight and combine with a minor amt of elevated instability to trigger an area of light rain showers and maybe a weak storm later in the overnight. A brief lull in the precip is expected Friday morning before the upper trough to the west begins to move east Friday afternoon. The upper jet associated with the trough will position itself in a location that puts NY and ne PA in the right entrance region...supplying the upper level support for large scale lifting. The addition of deep moisture...PWATs 1.75 to 2 inches...and increased instability during the afternoon and early evening hours Friday...500 J/kg of CAPE will allow for deep convective cells capable of producing locally heavy rain. With much of the srn tier in NY over to the Catskills and ne PA having seen a significant amt of rain recently and flash flood guidance very low...the threat for flash flooding remains elevated. Rainfall amounts tonight through Sat morning will be around 1 to 2 inches...with locally higher amts possible and some of it coming in potentially a short period of time. The main concern in flash flooding of low lying, poor drainage areas and small creeks and streams. The threat for main stem river flooding continues to be low. A few storms Friday afternoon and evening may intensify or pulse up at times and produce strong gusty winds. Temperatures tonight will drop into the 60s, and warm on Friday back into the 70s and lower 80s. Conditions remain mild and humid into Friday night with lows into the 60s, and dewpoints holding steady in the 60s. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Surface front exits the eastern zones early Saturday bringing an end to the organized convection. Weak surface ridging builds behind the front, but the upper trough is still swinging through so scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms may linger on Saturday, especially in the easter zones. Upper heights build on Sunday along with the surface high so we are not looking at any convection. Thus SUnday looks to be warm and dry, with relatively light surface winds. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... The long term looks to be fairly quiet, although afternoon convection is possible almost any day, especially late in the period. Upper ridging tries to hold fast as a slow moving short wave tries to push east from the Great Lakes. This will slowly increase the chance for showers and storms, mainly over the Finger Lakes and during the peak diurnal heating hours. Best chance will be late on Wednesday as the short wave starts to suppress the ridge. It will be warm through the period, with a light southwest flow. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Pre dawn hours: VFR conditons will continue through most of the overnight. Some showers will move northward into KAVP, KITH, KELM and KBGM from 08-12Z this morning which could lead to MVFR restrictions for a time. Winds will be rather light. This morning: Any showers should depart all terminals by around 12z. Mainly VFR. Light southeast winds. Ceilings still mainly VFR but some back and forth with MVFR levels possible. This afternoon: Another round of showers and possible thunderstorms from roughly 16-21Z with lower confidence on the timing compared to this morning. Highest chance for thunder is at KAVP and is the only terminal to feature that in the TAF at this time. Light southerly or southeasterly winds. Ceilings and visibilities will likely lower to MVFR with showers and then stay at that level after the rain passes through. Tonight: Timing of any showers and thunderstorms decreases this evening with the highest chances closer to 00z and any thunder threat decreasing fairly quickly. However, MVFR ceilings are likely to continue through the evening with some indications of IFR ceilings possible. Outlook... Late Friday night through Saturday morning...Likely restrictions in occasional showers/isolated thunder. Saturday afternoon through Monday... Mainly VFR, but fog possible early Sunday and Monday mornings. Tuesday...Restrictions possible in scattered showers and storms. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for PAZ038>040-043- 044-047-048-072. NY...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for NYZ024-045-046- 055>057-062. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BJT/TAC NEAR TERM...BJT/MWG/TAC SHORT TERM...DGM LONG TERM...DGM AVIATION...MWG