367 FXUS65 KABQ 301141 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 541 AM MDT Mon Jul 30 2018 .AVIATION... 12Z TAF CYCLE A backdoor cold front is progressing west into the Rio Grande Valley and creating moderate east canyon/gap winds at KABQ with gusts to near 30kts. Areas of MVFR cigs with patches of IFR prevail behind the front along/east of the central mountain chain and are currently impacting KLVS and KTCC. Improvement back to VFR will be slow this morning. A round of storms is forecast later today and may impact KLVS and KSAF, with lower probabilities at KAEG, KTCC, KROW and KABQ. East canyon/gap winds will pick up again early this evening at KABQ and may require an airport weather warning form gusts to between 35-40kts. 11 && .PREV DISCUSSION...325 AM MDT Mon Jul 30 2018... .SYNOPSIS... A backdoor cold will result in much cooler high temperatures for eastern New Mexico while central and western areas see slight cooling. Afternoon and evening thunderstorms today will be mainly confined to mountain locations and the southeast plains. East winds will develop for most areas east of the continental divide by midday and increase during the evening hours, especially for the middle Rio Grande Valley. Showers and thunderstorms will favor the western mountains Tuesday afternoon with only slight chances elsewhere. Showers and storms become more widespread Wednesday and moreso Thursday into Friday. High temperatures cool to below average across the east today and Tuesday while central and western areas range from near to above average values for late July. High temperatures rebound to near seasonal averages all areas by Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... Backdoor cold front making good progress southward through the eastern plains early this morning. Expect this front will break through Tijeras Canyon just after sunrise this morning. This feature will make for a tricky forecast today and Tuesday. Biggest question is where convection will develop in response to or in spite of low- level cold air advection. NAM12 and GFS remain at odds as to how much convection develops this afternoon and overnight. NAMBufr forecast sounding progging a stout temperature inversion near 700mb through the day, making it tough for clouds let alone convection to develop outside of areas with strong surface convergence (divide and southeast plain) and/or a mountain range to provide an elevated heat source. Similar scenario exits for Tuesday with the western mountain being favored as things heat up there as the front washes out. Strong east canyon winds are likely in the mid RGV tonight from ABQ south to Carrizozo. Moderate southeast winds are anticipated for the Santa Fe metro during the evening. Thunderstorm coverage increases Wednesday as a weak speed max/vort lobe moves through the northwest flow aloft and most areas return to near average high temperatures. NAM12 favoring the northeast third of the state as well as the southwest mountains. Storm motion will be southeastward as the Four Corners' high remains over centered over northern AZ/southern UT. GFS and ECWMF agree that storm coverage continues to trend up Thursday with most areas seeing at least scattered activity. GFS and ECWMF also agree that Friday looks very similar to Thursday with scattered to numerous coverage. ECMWF continues with the idea of a weakness in the subtropical upper high over NM for the weekend which would keep the scattered to numerous activity going. ECWMF continues to push the Four Corners' high eastward as a unseasonably deep closed low moves over the PACNW. GFS has the same general idea but plants the upper high over NM. ECMWF has been the far more run to run consistent model and its ensemble members support the operational run. 33 && .FIRE WEATHER... Much cooler temperatures are forecast today across eastern New Mexico behind a backdoor cold front, currently pushing down the eastern plains. Northwest portions of the state will remain hot, dry and unstable today under direct influence of the upper high centered near the AZ/UT/NV border. The front will recharge moisture across central and eastern New Mexico and result in a resurgence of wetting storms going into mid week as the upper high center remains west over Arizona. The forecast going into late week and especially into the weekend is of lower forecast confidence given differences between the latest operational runs of the ECMWF and GFS. By late Sunday the differences are rather large, with the ECMWF showing pressure heights 5 to 6dam lower at 500mb. However, both models show a continued uptrend in PWATs with daily rounds of wetting storms and very little steering flow. 11 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 33