318 FXUS61 KBGM 171929 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 329 PM EDT Tue Jul 17 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move through the area this afternoon and evening, bringing an end to the showers and thunderstorms, and relief from the heat and humidity. High pressure behind the front will keep dry weather in the area Wednesday into Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... 2 pm update... A surface cold front is pushing southeast through the CWA this afternoon. A weak broken line of showers is along it. Instability and shear is marginal. The airmass ahead of it has been worked over with a large area of showers which had thunderstorms leading it. Most of this has pushed southeast out of the area. Not much happened with it. Clouds remain between the convection so additional heating will be capped to around 80 degrees. Behind the front low and mid clouds are isolated. Dewpoints are dropping from around 70 into the 50s. This evening the front will move southeast of the area leaving a much less humid and cooler airmass for the rest of the near term. Temperatures will fall into the mid and upper 50s. Mainly clear skies will move in the rest of the this afternoon and evening, then continue through Wednesday night. Cold and dry advection will be the rule tonight and Wednesday with a northwest low level flow and an upper level trough. Wednesday highs will be mostly in the 70s which is slightly below average. Wednesday night will be even cooler with lows in the lower 50s and upper 40s. Valley fog will be patchy late tonight due to decent mixing and dry advection. Wednesday night will have more fog with much lighter winds. Most of the river valley fog will be over south central NY and NEPA. High pressure will be centered over the Great Lakes. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... High pressure will be over the region on Thursday and slowly depart the region Thursday night. Winds will be light with the high pressure overhead with another sunny day with highs around 80. Lows Thursday night will warm slightly up into the mid 50's on average. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... On the backside of the high, warm air advection with southerly winds will bring in moisture into the region. The high pressure will hang on enough to keep us dry through Saturday. High temperatures will warm into the 80's for Friday and Saturday with warmer lows in the 60's. The overall mid-level setup is still the same as it has looked the last few days. A trough will dig into the Ohio Valley with a low pressure tracking up the east coast. Interactions of these features are still uncertain. Showers from both of these will likely overspread the area Sunday before becoming more scattered for Monday and Tuesday. Some instability adds thunderstorm chance for Monday and Tuesday as well. Heavy rainfall is still the main concern with moisture advection off the gulf and the Atlantic into our region. Went several degrees below model guidance on Sunday with highs given clouds and the likelihood for showers keeping them in the 70's. Highs should rebound into the 80's Monday and Tuesday with lows each night in this period in the 60's. && .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 130 pm update... Showers have ended at the NY taf sites but will continue off and on at AVP. The cold front is pushing through the NY sites ending the IFR/MVFR cigs at BGM/ITH in the next hour. All NY sites will be VFR after that and into Wednesday as skies clear. AVP will have 2 hours of IFR due to cig and maybe vsby due to steadier rain. The rain will end by 20z then a shower is possible 21 to 23z. Brief restrictions are possible then. Tonight and Wednesday VFR with clear to partly cloudy skies. Valley fog should be patchy at most late tonight. Boundary level winds are over 20 kts with dry advection occurring. Not confident enough to include at this time. West to northwest winds at 5 to 10 kts this afternoon becoming light or light and variable tonight. Wednesday northwest to north winds at 8 to 10 kts. Outlook... Wednesday afternoon through Saturday...Mainly VFR. Restrictions possible due to valley fog each morning, especially at ELM. Late Saturday through Sunday...Restrictions in showers and thunderstorms. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TAC NEAR TERM...TAC SHORT TERM...DGM LONG TERM...MWG AVIATION...TAC