777 
FXUS64 KHGX 171521
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
Issued by National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1021 AM CDT Tue Jul 17 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Current forecast is mostly on target, with the only changes of 
note being a slight increase to SFC dewpoint temperatures to bring
them in line with Obs, and to increase cloud cover this morning 
with more extensive stratocu evident in satellite imagery. Clouds 
should lift and thin into a fair weather cu field over the next 
couple of hours, with plenty of sun expected for the afternoon
yielding a hot and humid, but otherwise dry forecast.

Updated products coming shortly.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 440 AM CDT Tue Jul 17 2018/ 

DISCUSSION...
A very dry and quiet forecast in store the next several days with
strong upper level ridging as the main feature. Saharan dust will
be on the decrease today/tonight, with perhaps another round mak-
ing its way into SE TX this upcoming Sunday. Projections indicate
that this next plume will be not as hazy as this current one, but
we are still a ways away. 

Otherwise, the main forecast problem should be high temperatures/
increased heat indices through the rest of this week. Persistent 
SW flow at the lower/mid levels will help to keep the airmass hot 
and dry with afternoon max temperatures climbing into the mid 90s 
to lower 100s inland...and upper 80s to lower 90s along the coast.
This should produce heat index values in the 105-110 degree range
(with brief higher values along the coast as the sea breeze moves
inland each day). Long-range models appear to be keeping this dry
trend in place. 41

MARINE...
S and SW flow will be pretty typical along with speeds of 7-13kts. 
Upper ridging and thermal lows developing should keep these winds 
flopping back and forth diurnally from SW in the morning to the S in 
the afternoon. Upper trough to the northeast may boost the rain 
chances over the coastal waters to isolated Thursday into Friday 
along the remnants of a surface trough along the Central Gulf Coast.
45

AVIATION...
VFR with a short window this morning around 12z where a few sites - 
UTS/CXO/CLL could go MVFR/IFR with a low ceiling - though probably 
confined to the CLL area. Hazy/dusty conditions will prevail today 
with impacts to slant visibility. Possible that 5-6SM HZ may occur 
periodically today at any of the area terminals. 
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      99  75 100  77 100 /   0   0  10  10  10 
Houston (IAH)              98  77  98  77  98 /  10   0  10  10  10 
Galveston (GLS)            90  81  89  82  90 /  10  10  10  10  10 

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

Discussion...13/LCH