000 
FXUS63 KILX 120442
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1142 PM CDT Wed Jul 11 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 900 PM CDT Wed Jul 11 2018

Expansive high pressure across the area will provide mostly clear
skies overnight. Dewpoints in the mid 60s to around 70 will add a
bit of a muggy feel to the air. Light east or calm winds are 
expected overnight. Fog is not expected to become a problem, as
low temps drop into the 60s by sunrise. 

Only minor adjustments were done to the hourly temps and dewpoints
tonight, so no formal forecast update will be needed. 

Another warm day is on tap for Thursday, with plenty of sunshine.
Dewpoints will remain in the 60s, so humidity levels will not be
overly oppressive. Higher heat and humidity are projected for
Friday and into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT Wed Jul 11 2018

A large upper level high pressure center over the central 
Mississippi River valley region will keep any precipitation 
deflected off to the north through Thursday. Drier air pushed 
southward into central IL over the past day keeping dewpoints down 
mainly into the 60s today, however a few observations have peaked 
over 70 degrees, likely due to evapotranspiration. With clear skies 
and light winds overnight, temperatures should fall to the mid 60s, 
with any of the excess shallow moisture condensing out as dew. For 
Thursday, looking for relatively low humidity as no moisture return 
takes place, with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s and high 
temperatures in the upper 80s to around 90. 

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT Wed Jul 11 2018

On Friday, the upper level ridge axis looks to shift eastward of 
central IL allowing moisture to the west and southwest to start 
moving into central IL through the weekend. Highs look to climb into 
the low 90s each day Friday through Sunday, with dewpoints rising 
well into the 70s resulting in heat index values near or above 100 
west of I-55 Friday, then generally 100 to 105 across central and 
southeast IL Saturday and Sunday. Precipitation doesn't appear to be 
a certainty through Sunday, although enough instability will develop 
for isolated to scattered thunderstorm potential. It appears a 
frontal boundary will remain to the north where better focusing of 
thunderstorm potential will occur. Have kept PoPs in mainly the 
slight chance to low-end chance categories Saturday and Sunday. On 
Monday, model consensus is a stronger trough will push a cold front 
through central IL, promoting a better chance of thunderstorms. 
Behind this feature, we should also see a cooling and drying trend 
through the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Wed Jul 11 2018

VFR conditions will continue through the entire 06Z TAF period,
due to expansive high pressure at the surface and aloft.
Relatively dry cloud layers will preclude much in the way of cloud
cover over the next 24 hours. Visibility looks to remain
unrestricted as well. 

Winds will start out easterly, then begin to shift toward the
southeast tomorrow morning as the surface ridge axis shifts
farther to the east of Illinois.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Shimon
SHORT TERM...37
LONG TERM...37
AVIATION...Shimon