270 FXUS62 KMHX 112300 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 700 PM EDT Wed Jul 11 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will move in from the north tonight and move slowly south through the region Thursday into early Friday. Weak high pressure will move into the area Friday through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... As of 7 pm Wednesday...No changes needed to zones. Hot and dry conditions will persist into early evening, then scattered convective activity expected to move into Albemarle Sound region mid to late evening and spread south overnight. Scattered activity has developed along a front east-west over VA and on track to move SE tonight with front and mid-level shortwave. Only significant change to previous forecast POPs were to increase to likely for northern sections overnight, otherwise low chance north early increasing to high chance northern half of area overnight. Lows in low to mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... As of 345 PM Wednesday...Slow moving front and shortwave will sink across area during the day, resulting in shower and tstm threat all areas. Main coverage expected in afternoon with front intersecting sea and sound breeze boundaries, and will have likely POPs over most of area inland of Outer Banks that period. A few storms could be strong to severe with wet microburst potential as PW will increase to around 2 inches along with 20-30 KT shear and CAPEs up to 3500. Locally heavy rain possible as well with slow-moving and repeating storms. Highs will range from lower 80s northern Outer Banks to around 90 southern sections with decent heating ahead of front. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 300 AM Wed...Weak cold front will likely stall south of area Thu night. A weak ridge of high pressure will move overhead Friday and Saturday, and then offshore Sunday through Tuesday. Thursday night and Friday...Precipitation should wane somewhat Thursday night, and become focused to the coast. Just a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms will be possible Friday, as weak high pressure begins to ridge in from the north. High temperatures be in the upper 80s to around 90 inland, and the low to mid 80s near the coast. Low temperatures will be seasonable ranging from the upper 60s inland, to the mid 70s near the coast. Saturday through Tuesday...Anomalous upper trough/cut off low will remain over the western Atlantic this weekend, while an upper ridge builds over the deep South. Eastern NC will be caught in between the two features, with surface high pressure building over the area Saturday, and then shifting offshore Sunday through Tuesday. Saturday should be mostly dry, while a sizable shortwave rotates through late in the day Sunday, likely sparking scattered showers and thunderstorms. Weaker impulses will move through Monday and Tuesday leading to more precip chances, and the gradient will increase with an inland trough developing. For high temperatures, upper 80s to low 90s are likely inland, while mid to upper 80s are likely for the coast. Low temps will be milder, ranging from the low to upper 70s. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Short Term /through 18Z Thursday/... As of 7 pm Wednesday...Weak cold front approaches our area from the north tonight with a shortwave pushing across the mid- Atlantic region, aiding in scattered showers/thunderstorms late tonight especially for PGV and to a lesser extent ISO. Front pushes slowly through our area and then stalls with better chances for showers and thunderstorms late in the period. Long Term /Thursday night through Sunday/... As of 330 AM Tues...Periods of sub-VFR conditions are possible Thursday night as a cold front stalls to the south of the region. Mostly VFR conditions are expected thereafter. && .MARINE... Short Term /through Thursday/... As of 7 pm Wednesday...No changes to zones. Current SW winds 10-15 KT will persist through the evening, then slow-moving cold front will produce shift to NE for northern waters overnight and into central waters during the day Thu. Seas mainly 2-4 ft during period but some 5 ft heights possible for outer southern and central waters later tonight. Long Term /Thursday night through Sunday/... As of 330 AM Wed...The front will push totally through the waters by Thursday night, with NNE winds 10-15 kts persisting through Saturday morning. Then winds become E 5-10 kts through Saturday night, before turning to the south Sunday at 5-15 kts. Seas will be 3-4 ft through Friday, when some 5 foot seas are expected over the central waters. Then, seas drop to 2-4 ft early Saturday, and hold steady for Sunday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 330 PM Wednesday...Lingering easterly swell combined with the "King" tide cycle will result in an enhanced rip current threat for much of this week. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement through Thursday evening for NCZ095- 103-104. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JBM NEAR TERM...HSA/JBM SHORT TERM...JBM LONG TERM...SGK AVIATION...HSA/MS/SGK MARINE...HSA/JBM/SGK TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX