477 FXUS62 KMHX 100754 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 354 AM EDT Tue Jul 10 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Nearly stationary Tropical Storm Chris will begin to lift northeast late today and tonight while strengthening to a hurricane. A weak cold front will move into the region Wednesday night and stall out just south of Eastern North Carolina by Thursday. Weak high pressure will move over the area this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 110 AM Tuesday...While Tropical Cyclone Chris continues to lurk well off of the coast showing little movement over the past 24 hours, high pressure remains over Eastern NC today and will continue to produce clear skies throughout and light winds inland. After a chilly start inland with near record low temperatures in the upper 50s, readings will warm rapidly into the mid to upper 80s. Chris is finally forecast to move northeast later today and tonight and strengthen into a hurricane. Will continue slight chance PoPs southern Outer Banks but little no precipitation is expected with this system today. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 315 AM Tuesday...Chris will continue moving northeast over the Atlantic while high pressure remains over the area continuing to produce clear skies and light winds. Resulting radiational cooling will allow temps to fall rapidly and trended toward the cooler MOS guidance with forecast lows in the lower to middle 60s inland and low 70s Outer Banks. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 300 AM Mon...With Chris finally accelerating out of the area on Wednesday, attention will turn to a weak cold front which will move into northern portions of Eastern NC Wednesday evening. The front will reach the southern coast Thursday, before stalling just offshore through Friday. Weak high pressure will move in this weekend, and then more unsettled weather is possible early next week. Wednesday through Friday...Chris will begin to absorb into a large upper trough early Wednesday, and then quickly push off to the northeast. Dry weather is likely through the early afternoon, before an approaching weak cold front sparks some showers and thunderstorms over the NE NC. Then, showers and storms associated with the front will slowly push south through the area, reaching the southern NC coast by Thursday morning. The front is then expected to continue to push just offshore, before stalling out through Friday. This will lead to increased precip chances for both Thursday and Friday. Have high chance PoPs for this period, focusing on the northern half of the CWA Wednesday, and then the southern half Thursday and Friday. Some organized thunderstorms are possible Wednesday evening and night, as shear values will be around 20-25 kts, with MUCAPE values 1500-2500 J/kg. Any storms that form will also be heavy rain-makers, as storm motions will be less than 20 kts, and PWATS approaching 1.75". It will be much warmer than recently on Wednesday, with temperatures reaching the low to mid 90s inland, and the upper 80s to low 90s near the coast. We cool off a bit Thursday and Friday behind the front, with highs only reaching the mid to upper 80s across the region. Low temps will be seasonable, ranging from the upper 60s inland to the mid 70 along the coast. Saturday through Monday...A weak area of high pressure will move over the NC coast Saturday, and act to limit any precip to only a few widely scattered showers/thunderstorms. Then, conditions turn more unsettled Sunday, and into early next week, as an upper level ridge builds across the lower Mississippi Valley, and multiple shortwaves rotate around it and into North Carolina. Temperatures will be around normal, with highs in the low 90s inland, and the mid to upper 80s near the coast. Low temps will be milder, ranging from the low to upper 70s. && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Short Term /through Tonight/... As of 110 AM Tuesday...Mainly VFR conditions and light winds will prevail this TAF cycle as dry high pressure is forecast to remain over the area through Tuesday night. There will be a small window for shallow fog with MVFR visibilities to develop 9-12Z tonight due to ongoing radiational cooling inland. Long Term /Wednesday through Saturday/... As of 340 AM Tues...Periods of sub-VFR conditions are possible Wednesday through Friday as a cold front slowly moves through the airspace and then stalls to the south of the region. && .MARINE... Short Term /through Tonight/... As of 110 AM Tuesday...NE to N winds 15 to 25 kt will continue across the waters for much of today then diminish to 10 to 20 kt late as Chris moves northeast. Tonight the flow will back from N to W late with winds diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. 5 to 8 ft seas today will subside to 4 to 6 ft tonight. Long Term /Wednesday through Saturday/... As of 340 Tues...Chris is expected to quickly push off to the northeast on Wednesday, and boating conditions will improve across the coastal waters. Winds Wednesday morning will be NW 10-15 kts, before turning to the SW by late morning. A slow moving cold front is expected to push into the northern coastal waters by Wednesday evening, and turn winds to the NNW at 10-15 kts behind it. This will continue as the front creeps south through all the coastal waters by late Thursday morning. However, the front may stall before reaching the southern coastal waters leaving winds SW 10-15 kts. Winds become easterly 5-10 kts later Thursday afternoon, and then blow out of the ENE Friday and Saturday. Seas will be 4-6 ft Wednesday morning, before quickly dissipating to 3-5 ft. 2-4 ft seas are then likely Wednesday night through Saturday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 315 AM Tuesday...Tropical Storm Chris is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane and move northeast over the Atlantic today and tonight. NE to N winds 15-25 kt are forecast through this afternoon and could produce minor beach erosion around the times of high tide. A High Rip Current threat will occur along the entire coast again today. Rough surf and strong longshore currents will also pose a threat for beach goers into this evening. The enhanced rip current threat is expected to continue through mid-week, as well as rough surf for the beaches, mainly from Cape Lookout north. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ095-098- 103-104. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ150-152- 154. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ156. Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Wednesday for AMZ158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JME NEAR TERM...JME SHORT TERM...JME LONG TERM...SGK AVIATION...JME/SGK MARINE...JME/SGK TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX