729 FXUS65 KTFX 081541 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 941 AM MDT Sun Jul 8 2018 .UPDATE... Morning update has been published, with very minimal changes made to the previous forecast. Overall, today (Sunday) will be very similar to yesterday (Saturday) with respect to temperatures and precipitation. Expect high temperatures across North Central Montana to be nearly identical to that of yesterday, with highs across the southwest potentially a little lower given abundant high cloud cover. Southwest flow aloft continues across the Northern Rockies, with another round of subtle impulses rippling through the overall flow. These impulses should help to spark off another round of showers and thunderstorms across Southwest and portions of Central Montana this afternoon and evening. As was the case yesterday, a few strong storms will be possible given very strong shear and weak instability, however, the shear today might be to strong and prove to be detrimental to storm intensity. Strong winds and small hail will be the primary threat with any storm that becomes strong today/tonight. One difference from yesterday will be winds, which look to be significantly lighter and from the east across North Central Montana. - Moldan && .SYNOPSIS... Warm weather persists today through this Tuesday, when a Pacific cool front is expected to sweep across the region. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible today and Monday, while scattered showers and storms are expected Tuesday. A severe storm cannot be totally ruled-out today and Monday, while Tuesday has a better potential for severe thunderstorms. && .AVIATION... Updated 1058Z. VFR and southwesterly to west-southwesterly flow aloft expected next 24-hours as high pressure ridging rebounds over the region and subtle disturbances traverse the ridge. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible over and near higher terrain, mainly this afternoon and early evening. Confidence in this isolated activity impacting any TAF site is low. Between 00Z and 12Z/Mon, a somewhat stronger disturbance should lift northeastward from southern ID to central MT, with a band of showers and thunderstorms accompanying this disturbance, especially along and east of a KHVR to KWYS line. - Jaszka && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 458 AM MDT Sun Jul 8 2018/ Today through Tuesday evening...High pressure aloft rebounds over our region today and begins to shift eastward Monday as a Pacific disturbance overspreads the Pacific Northwest. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible today and Monday due to daytime heating of higher terrain, subtle disturbances rippling through the ridge, and monsoonal moisture streaming into the area. Appreciable instability and moderate to strong vertical wind shear may allow a storm to become severe today and especially Monday. On Tuesday, the disturbance and its Pacific cool front sweep eastward through our CWA and look to encounter abundant monsoonal moisture and moderate to strong instability amidst moderate to strong vertical wind shear. Thus, scattered showers and thunderstorms, some severe, are expected on Tuesday. Damaging wind gusts and hail up to quarter-size or slightly bigger should be the main threats from any severe storm. Also, torrential rainfall and localized flash flooding are possible Tuesday. At this time, the best window for Tuesday's storms looks to span late morning through the early evening. Low temperatures trend from near-normal this morning to above-normal by Tuesday morning, while highs remain above-normal. Monday will likely be the hottest day of the short-term period. Wednesday through next Sunday...A drier pattern takes hold Wednesday and Thursday as zonal flow aloft becomes established over MT between a flattened ridge over much of the western United States and a broad trough over much of western and central Canada. Within this broad trough, a strong shortwave disturbance may cross our CWA from northwest to southeast Friday into Saturday, with the associated Canadian cold front perhaps sweeping through late Friday and/or early Saturday. Showers and thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of this front. Drier weather is then expected to return Sunday with high pressure aloft building-in from the west. Current forecast has low and high temperatures trending near-normal through the period. However, if the aforementioned Canadian cold frontal passage happens, temperatures following the front could be below-normal next weekend. - Jaszka && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 88 57 93 66 / 0 10 0 10 CTB 84 51 89 58 / 0 0 0 10 HLN 88 57 93 63 / 10 10 0 10 BZN 87 54 92 60 / 20 10 10 10 WEY 83 46 85 50 / 10 10 10 20 DLN 86 52 90 57 / 10 10 10 10 HVR 90 58 93 64 / 0 10 10 10 LWT 85 56 88 62 / 10 30 0 10 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls