862 
FXUS64 KOHX 042335
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
635 PM CDT Wed Jul 4 2018

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Temperatures have already warmed well into the 90's across Middle
Tennessee with heat indices now well above 100 degrees most areas.
Radar only shows an isolated shower or two but a few more &
stronger cells are expected later this afternoon. The SPC has
included most of our southern counties in a marginal risk of
severe storms this afternoon and evening, where instability seems
to be a little better. Storms may linger into the evening, and
then POP's begin increasing tomorrow and tomorrow evening and
especially on Friday as a blessed cold front supposedly drops
southward across Middle Tennessee. Both the GFS & Euro have
consistently given us a clean fropa Friday, and if this does
indeed occur, we can expect a cooler, drier weekend. This pattern
should hold next week as high pressure sets up near Middle
Tennessee and pushes the deepest moisture around us. So at most we
can expect isolated storms next week with temperatures staying
much closer to normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR conditions continue through the forecast period. Have some
isolated showers and thunderstorms around the area, but do not 
expect for these to impact any terminals. Winds will calm down 
after sunset and should remain variable around 5 knots or less 
into tomorrow. Have left out for now, but some models are hinting 
at fog tomorrow morning at CKV and CSV. Not confident enough to 
include for now, but may need to be introduced in a later TAF 
cycle.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Cheatham-Davidson-
Dickson-Hickman-Houston-Humphreys-Macon-Montgomery-Perry-
Robertson-Rutherford-Smith-Stewart-Sumner-Trousdale-Williamson-
Wilson.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......08
AVIATION........MacDonald