403 FXUS62 KMHX 040724 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 324 AM EDT Wed Jul 4 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A series of surface troughs will move westward across the area today through Thursday. A cold front approaches from the northwest Friday and moves across the area Saturday, then stalls south of the area early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 230 AM Wednesday...An upper ridge remains centered across the mid Atlantic and New England states while an upper low, currently about 200 mi east of Cape Canaveral, moves to the Florida coast today. Eastern NC lies between these two features with deep easterly flow across the region. At the surface, an inverted trough extends from just offshore southward off the Southeast coast with isolated showers moving into coastal sections early this morning. The trough will move westward across the area today providing a focus for showers, especially later this morning and afternoon with insolation bringing moderate instability across the area. Could see isolated thunderstorms this afternoon but upper level forcing is lacking and mid level lapse rates and low level shear remain weak so don't anticipate storms to become very strong. Temps will be a few degrees cooler today with highs in the mid to upper 80s. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 245 AM Wednesday...Little change in the pattern tonight with another inverted trough pushing across the region with isolated to scattered showers continuing. Isolated thunderstorms possible into the evening but expect the threat to diminish with loss of insolation. Mild temps continue in easterly flow and descent cloud cover limiting radiational cooling and expect lows in the mid 70s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 315 AM Tuesday...Models remain in decent agreement with a couple of pattern changes during the forecast period. Upper ridge extending over area from N-NE will be undercut by westward moving upper low and inverted trough surface reflection Wed night-Thu, then upper ridge will retrograde to west Friday allowing upper trough and surface front to move in over the weekend. Thursday...Increased precipitation chances continue this period as retrograding upper low over the SW Atlantic basin moves westward beneath the upper ridge with surface high pressure centered off the mid- Atlantic and New England coast. This will bring predominantly easterly low level flow across the region and with increased moisture off the Atlantic expect increased shower chances as several (inverted) troughs of low pressure are expected to move across the region through Thursday. Coverage should be scattered in nature so only advertising 30-50% pops. Precip will likely follow somewhat of diurnal trend with activity mainly along coast overnight and early morning, shifting inland during the day and POPs will follow this trend. Easterly flow and greater cloud cover will bring slightly cooler temps with highs in mid to upper 80s. Friday...The upper ridge centered to the north gets shunted westward as a northern stream shortwave and attendant cold front digs into the Great Lakes and northern mid-Atlantic. Low level flow across eastern NC becomes more S/SW Friday ahead of the front. A more typical summertime afternoon sea breeze develops with best chance of a scattered shower/storm during the afternoon across interior zones. Saturday-Tuesday...03/00Z global model suite in fairly good agreement now with the stronger cold front pushing into NC late Sat and stalling to south Sunday. GFS is still about 6-12 hours faster than ECMWF with frontal passage and used model blend. Plenty of moisture to work with and continued pops at 30-50% except increased to likely inland of coast for Saturday afternoon/evening. Highs still around 90 inland for Saturday while NE flow behind front will drop highs to mid-upper 80s for Sunday. Some of the guidance is indicating that the front could clear the area with dry weather Monday but prefer to stay with climo and keep low chance Pops. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Short Term /through Tonight/... As of 2 AM Wednesday...A series of inverted trough will move westward across the area trough the period bringing isolated to scattered showers across rtes. Isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into early evening hours, but are not expected to be very strong. Pred VFR expected through daybreak with isolated showers threat mainly at EWN. A period of MVFR cigs are expected mid to late morning with insolation before the LCL lifts to VFR around mid-day. Pred VFR expected outside of heavier showers/storms this afternoon and evening. Guidance is suggesting enough low level moisture to bring patchy fog or stratus late tonight with sub-VFR conditions possible. Long Term /Thursday through Sunday/... As of 330 AM Tuesday...Easterly flow increases into Thursday bringing increasing shower chances across the region with brief periods of sub-VFR conditions possible. The flow veers to southerly Fri and Sat ahead of an approaching cold front with a continued chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms. && .MARINE... Short Term /through Tonight/... As of 3 AM Wednesday...A series of surface trough will move westward across the waters through the short term. Latest obs show E winds 5-15 kt with seas 2-4 ft. Little change in conditions expected through the period with E to SE winds around 5-15 kt and seas around 2-4 ft. Long Term /Thursday through Sunday/... As of 330 AM Tuesday...A weak inverted trough of low pressure will retrograde westward off the Atlantic Ocean and pass to the south through Thursday with high pressure centered off the Mid- Atlantic and New England coast producing easterly flow around 10-15 kt across the waters. Seas will mainly be 3-4 ft into Thursday. As front approaches from NW, winds will become southerly around 10 KT Friday with seas 2-3 ft, and then SW 10-15 KT Sat with seas 3-4 ft. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SK NEAR TERM...SK SHORT TERM...SK LONG TERM...JBM AVIATION...JBM/SK MARINE...JBM/SK