114 FXUS61 KCAR 132219 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 619 PM EDT Wed Jun 13 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure from Quebec will approach overnight and cross the region Thursday. Weak high pressure will follow for Friday and Saturday...then move east on Sunday. A cold front will approach from the west late Sunday and will slowly cross the region through Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... 6:19 pm update: Showers associated with a frontal boundary continue to lift north of the FA early this evening. There is an area of showers in southern Quebec that will begin to move into western and eventually northern sections of the cwa later this evening. There is also a line of thunderstorms moving across southeast Ontario and into western NY State. These storms will weaken as they push east, but an isolated thunderstorm is possible late tonight as the remains of this line pushes into Maine and taps some mid level instability. Only minor adjustments to the forecast based on the latest observations and radar and near term model trends. Previous discussion: An area of low pressure will track east from the great lakes overnight and cross the region on Thursday. This system will bring some much needed rainfall to the area tonight into Thursday. Rain will develop late this evening, possibly becoming heavy at times after midnight, especially across the north and west. The highest rain totals through Thursday are expected to be across the St. John Valley and northwest Maine, where an inch to an inch and a half of rain is possible. However, we are not anticipating any hydro issues considering how dry its been of late. Rain totals will drop off across down east areas, where one-quarter to half an inch is expected. Some instability aloft and an approaching upper low may even result in an isolated thunderstorm overnight, especially from the Katahdin region on south. Thursday will be a cloudy and much cooler day as surface and upper level low pressure slides east. Showers will continue into Thursday and then become less widespread as the lows move east into the Canadian Maritimes. Thursday will be chilly day with high temperatures across the far north, especially the St. John Valley, not making it out of the upper 40s. Highs downeast will only be in the upper 50s to mid 60s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Whats left of sct shwrs will slowly retreat to the S and E of the FA durg the ovrngt hrs as both the sfc and upper low move E thru the Can Maritimes. With cool air only associated with the core of the upper low, cldnss should give way to ptly to msly sunny skies fairly promptly from NW to SE across the Rgn Fri morn, with a rapid recovery in temps both at 925-850mb alf and the sfc by late Fri aftn. After near seasonal ovrngt lows Fri ngt with a lgt NW breeze, Sat looks to be fair and a Little warmer with light winds with a weak sfc hi ovr the Rgn, with msly fair skies and light SW winds contg thru Sat ngt as well as slightly milder ovrngt lows as the sfc ridge moves E into the Can Maritimes. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Longer range models have a timing difference which could affect the weather on Sun. The 12z dtmnstc GFS model run cont's to show a more progressive s/wv tmg from Cntrl Can bringing shwrs/tstms to much of Nrn/Cntrl ptns of the FA by mid aftn. The 12z ECMWF, on the otherhand, is about 6 to 12 hrs slower, not bringing much of any activity into Nrn/Cntrl areas until well into the eve hrs. For, now we go with compromise tmg, bringing the leading edge of shwrs/tstms to far NW areas late Sun aftn and into the rest of the N and Cntrl areas Sun eve. We manipulated the multi- long range model blend of PoPs to show more potential of shwrs and tstms for Cntrl and Downeast areas Mon aftn rather than the N with the front already crossing into the S hlf of the FA by this time. We then show the cold front crossing the S of the Downeast coast by Mon eve, leaving attm, a fair and somewhat cooler and drier early next week, but ovrall, the long range will feature at or a little abv seasonal normal temps. && .AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR conditions early this evening will give way to developing rain and deteriorating flight conditions at the terminals. IFR conditions are expected to develop at all the terminals after midnight, with low clouds and rain expected. The rain may be heavy at times tonight across the far north. An isolated thunderstorm is possible as well, mainly from KHUL on south. MVFR/IFR conditions are expected Thursday in showers, especially across the northern terminals. SHORT TO LONG TERM: IFR clgs/vsbys all TAF sites with low cldnss/patchy dz and any remaining shwrs Thu eve will slowly improve to VFR by late Fri morn. VFR conditions will cont Fri aftn thru Sun, with the next chc of MVFR clgs/vsbys with tstms and heavier shwrs Sun eve thru Mon aftn. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: The small craft advisory has been extended for the outer waters through the overnight hours. Seas may remain near SCA levels first thing Thursday morning, otherwise conditions should drop below SCA by late Thursday afternoon. Visibility will be reduced at times tonight in showers and patchy fog. SHORT TO LONG TERM: Winds and seas will be just below SCA thresholds Thu ngt and Fri and then subside more so for Fri ngt thru Sun morn, then increase to near SCA thresholds spcly ovr our outer MZs Sun aftn into Mon with an increasing SW wind fetch. Went with about 75 to 85 percent of WW3 wv guidance wv hts for fcst wv hts for these ptns of the fcst with primary wv pds in the 5 to 7 sec range. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ050-051. && $$ Near Term...CB/Duda Short Term...VJN Long Term...VJN Aviation...CB/Duda/VJN Marine...CB/Duda/VJN