576 
FXUS65 KTFX 051037 CCA
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
437 AM MDT Tue Jun 5 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A sharp upper level disturbance will move through Southwest and 
Central MT, producing scattered showers and thunderstorms this
morning through early evening. Some of these storms could also be
strong. This will be followed by another round of showers and
thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday, with Thursday's thunderstorm
activity being more widespread across the entire region. Afternoon
highs will be a few degrees above normal for today and Wednesday,
with a very warm day expected on Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

An active convective week is expected for our forecast area this 
week with several opportunities for strong to severe thunderstorms. 
This will likely be followed by a strong cold front this weekend.

An approaching upper level system with good dynamics will approach
from the west this morning and help to re-develop shower and
thunderstorm activity along and near the Continental Divide, with
this activity move east-northeast across northern parts of
southwest Montana into central Montana this afternoon before
exiting our area by early evening. Any severe threat looks
marginal at best, and looks especially less impressive than
yesterday, but can not be entirely ruled out. Drier conditions 
will be short-lived for these areas as another round of showers 
and thunderstorms are expected to develop Wednesday afternoon into
the evening across these same areas. By Thursday, lift and 
instability become more widespread across our entire area, with 
numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms expected. Some of
these thunderstorms could be strong or severe, with the Storm
Prediction Center placing a Marginal Risk roughly south and east 
of a Havre-Lincoln line. CC

Active weather with seasonably warm temperatures continues into
the weekend. By late Saturday through Sunday, the models have 
been consistently showing a seasonally strong cold front passing 
through the area. This would likely be preceded by a round of 
thunderstorms, then followed by windy and much cooler conditions.
More details in the coming days as we continue to get a better
handle on the potential impacts with this system. -Martin/CC


&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0516z. 

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will move from
southwest to northeast through the region this evening, with 
perhaps some redevelopment overnight into Tuesday morning mainly 
south of KGTF and north of KBZN. Another round of 
showers/thunderstorms is possible on Tue afternoon over Southwest 
and Central MT. Overall VFR conditions will prevail, but short 
periods of MVFR/IFR conditions are possible in/near storms. CC

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Flood Warning continues for the Jefferson River near Three Forks 
where minor flooding continues. This flood warning could continue
for another few days.

Flood Warning continues for the Big Hole River near Melrose where 
minor flooding continues. The river has gone below flood stage. It
is forecasted to go back up, thus the flood warning will continue
for now. This will be looked at closer in the morning for a
possible cancellation.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  72  46  78  53 /  20  10  10  30 
CTB  69  41  76  48 /  10   0   0  10 
HLN  74  47  79  54 /  30  20  10  40 
BZN  76  46  77  49 /  30  20  20  50 
WEY  71  37  72  40 /  10  10  20  20 
DLN  75  43  75  47 /  20  10  20  60 
HVR  73  47  80  54 /  10  10   0  30 
LWT  66  47  74  52 /  30  20  20  50 

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

See Flood Highlights in the Hydrology section above. 

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls