549 FXUS64 KFWD 031743 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1243 PM CDT Sun Jun 3 2018 .AVIATION... /18z TAFs/ Stubborn stratus with bases around FL035-040 will linger for another hour or two across the eastern Metroplex sites, but anticipate VFR conditions to prevail as mixing helps lift and scatter this cloud cover. While the actual surface cold front seems to have slipped into Central Texas, plentiful moisture remains above the frontal inversion. While an isolated shower or storm will be possible across the Metroplex this afternoon, coverage seems far too low to warrant any precip mention at this time. Slightly better chances for some diurnal convection may occur at Waco, where a VCSH mention has been added later this afternoon as lingering inhibition dwindles. While impacts due to TS cannot be ruled out, most of the signal for thunder is to the south of the airport at this time. The forecast tonight and into Monday then becomes increasingly complicated as mesoscale features begin to dictate where the best convective chances reside. There is good agreement that a large complex of storms will move off the high terrain of New Mexico this afternoon and subsequently race eastward into the Big Country overnight. Some hi-res guidance delivers showers and storms to the Metroplex towards sunrise on Monday, but limited instability and veering/weak low-level flow does not support convective sustenance this far north and east. Thus, will continue to advertise dry TAFs across the Metroplex. At Waco, chances appear perhaps a bit better as a stout theta-e axis will remain in place which this complex may attempt to build into. I've inserted a VCSH mention after 04/11z to account for this, but impacts from TS are not out of the question. The next issue is what happens with daytime heating on Monday. If this aformentioned complex leaves a remnant MCV/outflow boundary around, this could serve as a focus for renewed development. Placing these features at this range is all but impossible, and so the DFW extended TAF will remain precipitation-free until a stronger signal can be elucidated. Carlaw && .UPDATE... /Issued 1042 AM CDT Sun Jun 3 2018/ The going forecast is in good shape. The main updates were to near-term cloud, dewpoint, and temperature trends. Our early June cold front has really lost its definition (at the surface at least) across Central Texas. While light northerly winds had infiltrated places like Cameron and Hearne earlier this morning, southwest winds have since returned. The 850 mb front is still draped across the I-20 corridor with the advective component of the flow all but gone as winds aloft continue to veer and weaken. As a result, while we'll be clearing out across the northern half of the region, enough moisture will remain for some afternoon showers and storms across our Central Texas counties. In addition, we've slowed the progression of the lower dewpoint air down and nudged high temperatures up just a hair given the pitiful cold advection behind this front. With temperatures in the mid 90s and low 70s dewpoints across our southern counties, heat indices will still top out in the 99 to 105 degree range this afternoon. Any storms which manage to develop into this environment will be capable of a strong-severe downbursts, but coverage does appear low today. Updated products have been transmitted. Carlaw && .SHORT TERM... /Issued 457 AM CDT Sun Jun 3 2018/ /Today and Tonight/ After an unseasonably hot day on Saturday, a surprisingly strong cold front has invaded North Texas. Gusty northeast winds immediately behind the boundary have so far imparted minimal cold or dry advection. These winds belie the motion of the surface front, which is now making minimal progress into Central Texas early this morning. Although there is refreshingly cool/dry air upstream across Oklahoma, the steadily weakening boundary layer flow deeper into the postfrontal air mass suggests that the front may not make much additional progress today. Nonetheless, dew points in the 50s will eventually arrive in areas along and north of the I-20 corridor. Even with afternoon temperatures reaching the upper 80s and lower 90s, the lower humidity -- combined with a healthy 24-hour temperature drop -- will make for a noticeably "milder" day today. The northerly surface winds will eventually reach all of the CWA though the postfrontal speeds will likely not be as forceful as what is being observed now. Some showers or isolated thunderstorms may accompany the frontal passage this morning. The potential for downburst winds should be limited to the afternoon, at which point the surface boundary should be beyond our CWA. Guidance continues to suggest that some postfrontal activity will be possible into the afternoon hours, but the flow along the frontal slope would be uninclined to support such development, particularly with mid-level ridging limiting the depth of the convection. In addition, the motion of those cells that develop in the warm sector would not take them across the surface front. Have maintained some low PoPs in our southern zones for the afternoon, but these should be primarily low-topped, short-lived showers -- the caveat being a slower frontal speed, which could keep the surface boundary within our CWA. With this in mind, the mention of thunder will prevail through the afternoon and into the early evening hours on our southern periphery. 25 && .LONG TERM... /Issued 457 AM CDT Sun Jun 3 2018/ /Monday through Next Weekend/ The shortwave rounding the top of the Mexico ridge will have split into two separate features by the start of the period. The first should be traveling east across West and Northwest Texas and responsible for the development of a thunderstorm complex to our west. These storms will be ongoing at the start of the forecast period but will likely diminish prior to reaching our western counties. The presence of the upper level disturbance, or what by then may have evolved into an MCV, may lead to some re-development during the day Monday across the western half of the region. Low- end POPs will therefore be maintained roughly along and west of I-35 for Monday. The second disturbance will be located farther north but will approach the Red River from the northwest Monday evening. This will ignite a second thunderstorm complex over the Texas Panhandle and Northwest Texas late Monday afternoon or Monday evening. Moist inflow should help maintain this MCS as 30 KT winds at 925 MB feed into the southeastward moving storm complex, and storms will likely hold together as they affect the northern half of the forecast area Monday night. Chance PoPs will be in place for areas mainly along and north of the Interstate 20 corridor, with the highest chances being along the Red River. It is possible that these storms generate a few damaging wind gusts and quarter sized hail due to the presence of good instability and modest shear, but most storms should remain below severe thresholds. As the shortwave continues to drop southeast, convection will shift to areas east of the I-35 corridor during the day Tuesday, with a low-end severe threat remaining possible. Storms should come to an end Tuesday evening as the shortwave heads southeast towards coastal Louisiana. The persistent upper ridge over Mexico may have briefly been weakened by the upper level disturbance but will recover quickly and strengthen overhead mid to late week. The forecast focus will therefore shift back to temperatures and heat indices Wednesday through next weekend. 30 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 91 69 91 72 93 / 10 0 10 50 30 Waco 94 71 94 73 95 / 20 5 20 20 10 Paris 89 65 88 66 88 / 5 0 5 50 40 Denton 91 65 90 71 94 / 5 0 10 50 30 McKinney 90 65 89 69 91 / 5 0 10 50 40 Dallas 92 72 93 74 94 / 10 0 10 50 30 Terrell 91 67 91 70 93 / 10 5 10 50 40 Corsicana 93 69 91 71 91 / 20 5 20 30 30 Temple 93 72 93 73 95 / 30 20 30 10 10 Mineral Wells 91 65 91 70 97 / 10 5 30 30 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 90/79