326 FXUS64 KFWD 272044 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 344 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018 .SHORT TERM... /Through Tonight/ North/Central Texas remains beneath a narrow upper ridge axis positioned between a deep upper low to the west and Subtropical Storm Alberto to the east. The ridge's associated subsidence has mostly inhibited development of any showers and storms across the area so far today. However, this is not the case for our southeastern zones which remain within an axis of higher moisture and are far enough removed from the upper ridge's influence. Isolated showers and an occasional storm are expected roughly southeast of Athens to Hearne through this evening before activity dissipates with loss of heating. Farther north and west, the cumulus field appears too stable/suppressed to support any shower/storm development this afternoon. Otherwise, temperatures will climb a few degrees shy of record values this afternoon, but are still abnormally hot for late May. Lows will only fall into the low/mid 70s overnight with a light ESE wind. -Stalley && .LONG TERM... /Monday through Sunday/ As an upper level low that is currently over the Intermountain West lifts northeastward toward the northern Plains and "Alberto" moves northward into the southeastern U.S., mid-level heights are expected to fall a little across North and Central Texas on Monday. This should result in Monday's high temperatures being a couple of degrees lower than today at most locations. Highs will range from the lower 90s east to upper 90s west. Heat Index values will reach the mid 90s to 101 degrees. Lows Monday night will be in the upper 60s to mid 70s under mostly clear skies. It will be hot and rain-free across the region again on Tuesday. Temperatures may be a degree or two higher than Monday with lower 90s east expected across the east to slightly over 100 degrees across the northwest. Lows Tuesday night will be in the lower to middle 70s. The upper level ridge is expected to build northeastward across the region mid to late week. This will result in continued rain- free weather with a slight warming trend. Highs will be in the lower to middle 90s east to 102 to 103 degrees west on Wednesday and mid to upper 90s east to 106 northwest by Saturday. Heat Index values will be 98 to 107 degrees mid to late week, so a Heat Advisory may be needed later this week for parts of the forecast area. A slight cool-down may occur late weekend into the early part of next week as a couple of shortwaves move across the Plains and break down the northern part of the ridge. The GFS even indicates that a weak front may try to move into North Texas Sunday, but the ECMWF and Canadian are not so optimistic. 58 && .AVIATION... /Issued 1223 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018/ /18Z TAFS/ VFR conditions with no major concerns for all the TAF sites through this period. In general, a subsidence pattern will continue to dominate our region, with some diurnal cumulus through the afternoon. Expect dry conditions, with the exception of the areas to the southeast of the TAF sites. Pop-up convection may develop in this region where better Gulf moisture is present. Easterly winds will remain around 10kts or less. Sanchez && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 74 94 74 96 76 / 5 0 0 0 0 Waco 73 96 73 99 74 / 5 5 0 0 0 Paris 70 92 70 93 72 / 5 0 0 5 5 Denton 72 94 72 97 75 / 5 0 0 0 5 McKinney 71 92 72 94 74 / 5 0 0 0 5 Dallas 76 95 77 97 79 / 5 0 0 0 0 Terrell 72 95 72 97 74 / 5 5 0 0 0 Corsicana 73 93 72 96 73 / 5 5 0 0 0 Temple 72 95 72 97 74 / 5 5 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 72 95 70 98 73 / 5 0 0 0 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 26/58