564 FXUS61 KRLX 260008 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 808 PM EDT Fri May 25 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Weak upper level disturbance crosses overnight. Stronger upper level trough crosses Saturday into Sunday. Dry per high pressure for Memorial Day. Unsettled weather should return by mid week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 805 PM Friday... Forecast on track, with widely scattered showers mainly east of the Ohio River, and lightning activity all but gone. As of 615 PM Friday... Made adjustments to overnight PoPs based on latest trends and near term guidance, which reflects the chance for showers through the night in and near the mountains per mid level weakness and upper level divergence. The essence of the forecast is largely unchanged. As of 225 PM Friday... Cumulus field is building this afternoon, but from visible satellite imagery, it is apparent that the relatively shallow saturated layer is having a head time feeding vertical development. Some small showers have popped over the Tug Fork Valley, and expect more coverage, especially in the mountains over the next few hours this evening. Some thunder is possible, but again, the dry air in the mid levels is going to be inhibitive to a large degree. Higher dewpoints are leading to milder overnight lows tonight. Expect an increase in rain chances early Saturday with the approach of the open wave aloft moving into the middle Ohio Valley, so the increase in POPs is not completely dependent on heating tomorrow. Coverage should increase with the added instability and moisture depth increases region wide. Lots of general thunder potential for the entire eastern third of the CONUS on Saturday. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 240 PM Friday With a good feed of Gulf moisture and an upper level trough moving through, expect showers and thunderstorms to drift through Saturday night and Sunday. By Sunday night, and especially Monday, we are in the dead area between the northern and southern streams which should limit showers and storms. Still, with decent moisture kept some low end POPs in, mainly across the south and east. Temperatures will remain above normal. Stuck close to a consensus blend. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 240 PM Friday... The pattern is a bit messy for the long term. Initially a cold front will try to sink in from the north while the remnants of what becomes of sub-tropical storm Alberto begin moving north out of the Gulf. Run-to-run and model-to-model consistency is rather low on the evolution of this resulting in minimal confidence. Due to this, stuck very close to a consensus blend which brings slightly higher POPs each day Tuesday through Thursday as the remnants drift through. The threat for flooding and strong to severe storms will highly depend on the track of these features. Continued showers and storms are possible Friday with an upper level system somewhere in the Great Lakes region. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 805 PM Friday... Widely scattered showers mainly along and east of the Ohio River will decrease in coverage after sunset, but a weak upper level disturbance will keep a low chance going overnight, mainly in and near the WV mountains. Clouds and a weak low level jet should prevent widespread valley fog overnight, but MVFR valley fog is coded up per guidance consensus, with higher dew points compared with last night. Overnight and early morning IFR fog is possible, especially if a shower or thunderstorm directly impacts a TAF site, although the early evening showers that skirted by HTS and BKW look like they will not enhance overnight fog there much. A stronger upper level disturbance, and ongoing low to mid level northward moisture transport, will lead to more numerous showers and thunderstorms on Saturday, starting early. This has been explicitly coded in the TAFS, although amendments may still be needed for flight restrictions as convection patterns form. Light south to southwest surface flow will continue, beneath light west to southwest flow aloft. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Terminals that get rain see brief IFR with it, and then in IFR fog overnight and early Saturday morning. May need to add TSRA and flight restrictions for numerous cells on Saturday. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 05/25/18 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 00Z SUNDAY... No widespread IFR expected. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/MZ/26 NEAR TERM...TRM/26 SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...TRM