211 FXUS62 KMHX 220756 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 356 AM EDT Tue May 22 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Tropical moisture will continue over the area into mid week with high pressure centered offshore. A cold front will move through the area late Wednesday night followed by high pressure building in from the north Thursday. The high will move offshore Friday with a Bermuda high pattern returning for the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 230 AM Tuesday...High pressure centered over the western Atlantic with broad low pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will continue to bring deep moist southerly flow across the area today with PW values around 1.5-1.8". A frontal boundary remains stalled near the highway 64/264 corridor early this morning but is expected to lift north of the area around 12z. Will continue to see areas of low stratus and fog north of the boundary this morning but expect conditions to improve after the front lifts to the north. Could also see patchy fog to the south of the during the pre-dawn hours with little to no dewpoint depression and light/calm winds. With a moist and unstable airmass remaining in place, expect isolated to scattered thunderstorms again this afternoon, but not quite the coverage as yesterday. Highest chances will be across the northern counties closer to the surface boundary just north of the area and subtle shortwave energy lifting into southeast VA and northeast NC, but could see isolated storms develop along the sea breeze as well. With limited shear and upper level forcing not expecting storms to become severe but with high PW values and slow storm motions we could see locally heavy rainfall. Highs today expected in the mid 80s inland to upper 70s/lower 80s coast. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 3 AM Tuesday...Shower and thunderstorm activity expected to dissipate early in the evening with loss of surface heating with dry conditions much of the overnight, however will see height falls after midnight as stronger northern stream shortwave energy and sfc cold front approach from the northwest and could see showers and thunderstorms moving into northwest sections late. SW wind will continue to bring mild conditions overnight with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 340 AM Tuesday...Little change in the overall forecast for the extended period. Wednesday looks quite wet with a pattern flip to a somewhat drier scenario Thursday and Friday. Moisture increases again Saturday with another round of wet weather possible for early next week. Wednesday and Wednesday night...The combination of an oncoming back door cold front and deeper moisture returning as precipitable water values surge to 2 inches, well above the climatological normal, will lead to a higher chance of showers and thunderstorms for Wednesday. The better chance of heavier precipitation and stronger storms will be near the better upper support over the northern portions of the CWA. SPC has our far northern counties in a Marginal threat of severe weather for Wednesday and will have likely PoPs north to high chance south. Gusty winds and marginally severe hail will be possible with the stronger storms over northern areas Wednesday. The cold front is forecast to cross the CWA between 06z and 12Z Thursday morning. This movement has been consistent for several model cycles now. Highs for Wednesday will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s thanks to increased cloud cover, with lows Wednesday night in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Thursday through Saturday...Somewhat drier and slightly cooler weather will prevail Thursday and Friday. With the front sagging over the far southern CWA Thursday morning, will keep a decent chance of showers and thunderstorms for this area early in the day. By afternoon, drier air will be the rule as dewpoints drop into the low/mid 60s, which will be followed by low temperatures into the low/mid 60s inland and around 70 Outer Banks for Friday morning. Good model consensus for a no PoP forecast for Friday as high pressure shunts all of the precipitation to the south of our CWA. Winds veer to S/SW by Saturday as high pressure strengthens offshore and moisture starts to return to the south due to an upper low over the northern Gulf of Mexico. Temperatures warm back to the mid 80s Saturday with a better chance of rain. Sunday and Monday...Deep moisture between low pressure along the central to western Gulf coast and strong high pressure anchored offshore will lead to increasing deep moisture for Sunday into early next week. Will continue forecast of higher PoPs and increasing SE/S winds Sunday and Monday. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Short Term /Through Tonight/... As of 2 AM Tuesday...A frontal boundary continues across northern rtes early this morning but is expected to lift north of the area around daybreak. Widespread IFR/LIFR conditions persist to the north of this boundary, but with light winds and saturated sfc conditions to the south, expect patchy fog/stratus here early this morning as well. Conditions should improve by 13-14z with pred VFR conditions late morning through the evening hours. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms expected across the area this afternoon, mainly northern sections and along the sea breeze may bring brief reductions in cigs/vsbys. Moist SW flow continues tonight and could see MVFR/IFR stratus develop after midnight. Long Term /Wednesday through Saturday/... As of 350 AM Tuesday...Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms will lead to frequent periods of sub-VFR conditions Wednesday into Wednesday night. A somewhat drier airmass arrives Thursday and Friday behind a back door coldfront with VFR conditions likely. Increased moisture and a return to shower and thunderstorm activity will lead to a few periods of sub-VFR conditions for Saturday. && .MARINE... Short Term /Through Tonight/... As of 3 AM Tuesday...A weak frontal boundary across the northern waters will slowly lift north of the area this morning. Areas of stratus/fog continue north of this boundary early this morning with observations around KDH showing vsbys dropping to 1/2 mile at times and have issued a dense fog advisory for the waters north of Oregon Inlet and Albemarle Sound. Expect conditions to improve as this boundary lifts north around daybreak. Expect SW winds around 15 kt or less with seas 2-4 ft through mid-day today. Winds will to increase to 10-20 kt this afternoon through tonight as gradients tighten with a strengthening thermal trough inland as well as a cold front approaching from the west. Seas will build to 3-4 ft with up to 5 ft possible across the outer waters late. Long Term /Wednesday through Saturday/... As of 355 AM Tuesday...As a cold front approaches the area Wednesday into Wednesday night, SW winds of 15-20 knots are expected on the Pamlico Sound and Coastal waters with 10-15 knots elsewhere. The front should pass across the CWA between 06z and 12z Thursday with winds becoming N/NE at generally 10-15 knots with a few gusts to 20 knots possible. Seas build to 3-5 feet Wednesday and Wednesday night, but drop back to 2-4 feet for Thursday into Saturday. As high pressure strengthens offshore, winds veer to SE by Friday and become S/SW at 10-15 knots with a few higher gusts by Saturday. No Small Craft Advisories are anticipated for the extended period at this time. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for AMZ130-150. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SK NEAR TERM...SK SHORT TERM...SK LONG TERM...CTC AVIATION...CTC/SK MARINE...CTC/SK