939 FXUS62 KMHX 081100 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 700 AM EDT Tue May 8 2018 .SYNOPSIS... An upper trough of low pressure will linger over the region through tonight with surface low pressure skirting up and off the NC coast. High pressure will remain to the north through midweek, then shift south and off the southeast coast late in the week but extend over the area into the weekend. A trough of low pressure will affect the region early next week. && .NEAR TERM /Today/... As of 7 AM Tue...Column beginning to moisten coastal areas as evidence by thickening cloud cover on IR imagery. Moisture is steadily streaming towards the coast as KMHX radar verifies rain showers breaking out offshore and moving towards downeast Carteret county. Have a steadily increasing POP through the day today. Previous discussion... As of 330 AM Tue...Setup similar to Monday with upper low in place and coastal troughing offshore. Rain chances are higher than yesterday with indications that sfc low pres will develop off the coast by late today, bringing with it showers to mainly eastern half of the FA, best chances through the afternoon. Have increased pops to likely from downeast Carteret through the OBX zones. GFS/EURO MOS vals high biased again for temps, and have blended the NAM MOS and raw NAM model, as this model has a good handle on bndry layer temps with frontal inversion sharpening today. This setup will bring cool conditions courtesy of light rain/drizzle/low clouds. Highs will be in the 60s most areas, maybe reaching 70 far west where driest conditions expected. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 330 AM Tue...The sfc low will pass off the NC coast through the evening, with high pops lingering until around midnight, highest northeast, then diminishing rain chances late. Low clouds and perhaps drizzle/light fog expected for most areas however as light northeast flow off the Atlantic keeps low levels quite moist. Later shifts may have to add mention of fog to grids as winds will be quite light, esp interior areas. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 3 AM Tue...Gradual warmup through the period, with increasing precip chances early next week. Wednesday through Friday...As upper level trough lifts out Wed, weak ridging begins to develop across the Carolinas. With lingering moisture and support, will continue a slight chance of showers along the coast early Wed. Widespread cloud cover will gradually diminish, with temps warming a few degrees, supporting highs in the upper 60s/low 70s along the beaches and mid 70s inland. Overnight lows in the 50s Wed night. A mid-level trough will cross the region Thursday evening, pushing a weak cold front through late Thu night into Fri. Moisture will be limited as the best support for precipitation will remain to our north, but will carry slight chance PoPs across the northern half of the area Thursday night. Latest guidance has trended wetter Thu night, so expanded pops southward from previous forecast. Upper level heights start to build on Friday setting up some rather warm temperatures. Guidance and low level thicknesses support low to mid 80s inland Thursday and some mid/upper 80s Friday with even the coast warming to around 80 by Friday. Overnight lows in the 60s Thu and Fri nights. Saturday and Sunday...Upper heights continue to build with strong ridging over the southeast United States. Mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies expected through the weekend, with highs in the mid to upper 80s inland and upper 70s to low 80s along the coast. Overnight lows in the 60s. Isolated to widely scattered, diurnally driven, showers and maybe some tstms possible Sat afternoon/evening and again Sunday. Monday and Tuesday...Below avg confidence in forecast specifics early next week, with decent amt of model spread. A front is forecast to approach from the west with increasing moisture off the Atlantic. The GFS is much quicker with the frontal passage and also develops a stacked low over FL. While the ECMWF is much slower and does not develop any significant low at this time. Trended towards the EC. Will cap pops at low chance for now given the uncertainty. Highs inland in the 80s and 75-80 deg along the coast. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Short Term /Through tonight/... As of 7 AM Tue...Conditions are very low end MVFR all terminals. Still may see a few hours of IFR through mid morning, but mainly MVFR cigs through the day today. Sct showers expected today, esp for eastern areas. Conditions expected to drop to IFR or lower tonight as the frontal inversion in place strengthens and lowers. Winds generally N 5-10 kt today, diminishing to around 5 kt tonight. Long Term /Wednesday through Saturday/... As of 3 AM Tue...Widespread sub-VFR ceilings Wednesday morning expected to gradually lift through the day, and likely improving to VFR. Could see some lower ceilings re-develop Wed night into early Thu. Pred VFR conditions expected Thu through Sat. Isolated to widely scattered showers and storms possible Sat afternoon. && .MARINE... Short Term /Through tonight/... As of 330 AM Tue...NE winds continue 15-20 kt across the waters and sounds this morning and will continue this strength through tonight. Have SCA continuing for all coastal waters. Low pressure expected to develop off the Carolinas coast today and move up and away from the NC coast tonight. Winds may strengthen a bit, though the low expected to remain fairly weak, and winds not expected attm to reach SCA for the sounds. Will have to monitor for inclusion if the low is stronger than expected however. Long Term /Wednesday through Saturday/... As of 3 AM Tue...N/NE winds 10-20 kt Wed, with seas 3-6 ft. SCA seas expected to continue across the waters central waters into Wed evening. Winds gradually become S/SW at 5-15 knots Thursday with seas subsiding to 2-4 ft. Increasing SW winds 10-20 kt, Thu evening and early Friday ahead of a weak cold front with seas building to 3-5 ft. The front will push through Friday, with winds becoming more N/E 10-15 kt behind it. Looks like a nice day Sat with SE winds 5-10 kt becoming SSE 5-15 kt in the afternoon with seas 2-3 ft. && .EQUIPMENT... As of 800 PM Monday...Radar is back on line but has not yet been fully certified as operational. Technicians will continue calibration Tuesday morning and hope to have it fully restored by afternoon. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ095-103- 104. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ156-158. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for AMZ150. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TL NEAR TERM...TL SHORT TERM...TL LONG TERM...CQD AVIATION...CQD/TL MARINE...CQD/TL