709 
FXUS63 KAPX 051927
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
327 PM EDT Sat May 5 2018

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 327 PM EDT Sat May 5 2018

...Increasing chances of rain late tonight into Sunday...

High Impact Weather Potential...None.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Southeastward progress of weak moisture-
starved cold front has slowed this afternoon...remaining draped 
across Northern Lower Michigan attm. An area of mid cloud has 
developed just ahead of it...the only visible result of the front. A 
look upstream shows a short wave diving SE out of Minnesota toward 
Michigan...producing a broken area of shower activity across 
Northern Minnesota attm.

Clouds will gradually increase...lower and thicken this evening 
ahead of this wave...with small chances of rain showers developing 
late tonight into Sunday as this wave slides thru the region. QPF is 
rather low with these showers...with precip chances diminishing and 
eventually ending Sunday afternoon. 

After another night with overnight lows in the 40s...temps will be 
noticeably cooler on Sunday behind the short wave. Afternoon highs on 
Sunday will mainly be in the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Sunday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 327 PM EDT Sat May 5 2018

...Quiet weather... 

Primary Forecast Concern...Minimal 

Building heights aloft and high pressure at the surface combine to 
bring the region a couple of quiet weather days. Diminishing winds 
and mostly clear skies will lead to excellent radiational cooling 
conditions Sunday night. Therefore, undercut guidance by a few 
degrees. Otherwise, clear to partly cloudy skies and mild readings 
are expected. Temperatures will be close to average highs Monday then 
increase to a few degrees above Tuesday. Looking at lows in the 
upper 20s to middle 20s Sunday night then the upper 30s to lower 40s 
Monday night. Highs Monday mainly in the 60s followed by highs in 
the upper 60s to middle 70s Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 327 PM EDT Sat May 5 2018

...Tuesday night through Saturday...

The extended period starts dry and mild. Models are in fairly good 
agreement for a short wave to move through the region Wednesday 
night into Thursday. This drags a cold front through the region late 
Wednesday through Thursday morning, likely bringing rain with it. 
Temperatures cool behind this front. Models start to diverge Friday 
on timing and intensity of another system coming in on Saturday, 
with a chance of rain showers.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 115 PM EDT Sat May 5 2018

A weak wave will slide thru the region late tonight into
Sunday...providing a chance of rain showers. Overall conditions
will remain VFR thru the forecast period despite increasing
chances of precip. Winds will remain from the N/NW at around 10
kts with some higher gusts expected during the afternoon/early
evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 327 PM EDT Sat May 5 2018

Winds and waves will remain below SCA criteria thru the weekend. 
Chances of rain showers will increase later tonight into Sunday as a 
weak short wave slides thru Michigan.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MR
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...SJ
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...MR