240 FXUS62 KRAH 011800 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 200 PM EDT Tue May 1 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Strong high pressure will extend over the Southeast states through the rest of the work week, resulting in above normal temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 200 PM Tuesday... Tranquil weather pattern in place right now with high pressure at the sfc centered just to our south and ridging aloft. Forecast soundings are progged to remain dry tonight. With the high centered to our south, we should see a very subtle SW wind drift this evening and tonight, which will help advect some slightly higher dwpts overnight and keep temps from lowering all the way down to the dwpt. That said, look for lows tonight around 50. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 200 PM Tuesday... Little change in the pattern suggests another nice day Wednesday with plenty of sunshine and a few deg warmer with SW flow continuing. Highs in the mid 80s and lows Wednesday night in the mid 50s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 120 PM Tuesday... Thursday and Friday: The end of the work week will be glorious - a harbinger of summer thanks to deep ridging in place across the east coast. Skies will be sunny with highs well above normal, reaching mid to upper 80s both days, with some very low 90s not out of the question across the south. Morning lows will be around 60 both mornings. The upcoming weekend: The high pressure will lose its foothold, as omega blocking begins deamplifying late in the week. A strong short wave lifting up the ridge into the Great Lakes will push a strongly sheared frontal zone slowly southeast across the mountains Friday night. This front will slow to a crawl and then stall over coastal NC Sunday into Monday before being nudged east and further offshore by a second, dry cold front Monday night. Upper support will be maximized Saturday night as the trof axis approaches, but moisture will be in rather short supply with weak, predominantly westerly flow across the Gulf States. Will maintain ongoing chance PoPs Saturday afternoon into Sunday afternoon due to timing differences in the model solutions. Highs Saturday will reach low to mid 80s, with frontal passage and cloudiness Sunday dialing the highs back into the upper 70s to lower 80s. Dry and seasonable high pressure will build in later Monday through Tuesday, with decreasing clouds and highs reaching upper 70s to lower 80s after lows in the mid and upper 50s. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 112 PM Tuesday... Through 18Z Wednesday...Ridging both sfc and aloft and dry airmass will result in VFR conditions through the TAF period with SW winds generally 10kt or less. VFR conditions are forecast until a weakening cold front approaches late in the upcoming weekend. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...np NEAR TERM...np SHORT TERM...np LONG TERM...mlm AVIATION...np