722 FXUS64 KBMX 262034 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 334 PM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018 .SHORT TERM... Through Tonight. The 500mb upper low center was located near Tupelo, MS, this afternoon and will track across north Alabama this evening. The primary band of stronger forcing has pushed into Georgia and a mid level dry slot has wrapped into south central Alabama ahead of the upper low. Very cold temperatures (-22C) associated with the upper low center has produced limited instability across north Alabama. A few thunderstorms have developed to the east of the upper low center, producing small hail. There is still a small window of opportunity for stronger storms to develop during the heating of the afternoon, but severe potential is very small at this time. Even though the upper low will quickly track off to the east tonight, a wide swath of clouds around the upper low will result in mostly cloudy skies overnight. Scattered showers will continue through the early evening hours for areas near and to the east of the upper low, but expect most of the rain showers to dissipate by 9 or 10 pm. 58/rose .LONG TERM... Friday through Thursday. A deep trough remains in place over the Eastern CONUS this weekend. Another shortwave moves through the trough on Friday and could be a focus for some extra lift in Central AL; however, moisture return is expected to be minimal behind the departing cold front. Therefore, I don't expect much rain coverage for our area through the weekend. A surface high pressure slide southeastward through the Upper Midwest and into the Southeastern US Sunday into Monday. Upper level ridging also builds in across region at this same time. Expect a slight warming trend for the beginning of next week with rain-free conditions. A shortwave trough digs into the Pacific NW and continues southeastward into the Four Corners region Tuesday into Wednesday. This will push the surface high pressure eastward, placing it over the Coastal Mid-Atlantic Region during the day on Wednesday. This marks a return of the southerly flow for Central AL as we're caught between a trough to our west and ridging to our east. The GFS tries to bring in some moisture, and with the help of some isentropic lift, develops some brief showers Wednesday afternoon. The ECMWF keeps any light precip remaining off to our west, so will keep any PoPs on the lower end given we're still 7 days out on that. Overall, expect a more spring-like weekend and week ahead with mild overnight low temperatures and warm afternoon highs. 25/Owen && .AVIATION... 18Z TAF Discussion. Widespread RA with a few TS have departed most of the terminal locations while RA will continue at KTOI through 20Z. Expect a brief period of IFR to MVFR CIGS as a dry slot aloft pivots northeast across the area ahead of the upper low currently centered over northeast Mississippi. VCSH will remain forecast through early evening at most locations. There remains some limited TS potential but the probability remains too low to mention at any site. Tonight the precipitation diminishes but IFR CIG's are expected to prevail through early Friday morning followed by gradual improving conditions later in the day on Friday as the upper low slides further east of the area. 05 && .FIRE WEATHER... A cold front moving through today will bring wetting rains to all of the area. Drier conditions move in after tonight. Afternoon minimum relative humidity values will drop to upper 30s through the weekend. There are no fire weather concerns at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 48 71 47 74 45 / 40 0 0 0 0 Anniston 50 73 48 75 46 / 30 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 49 73 51 76 49 / 10 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 51 73 51 76 49 / 10 10 0 0 0 Calera 50 72 50 75 49 / 10 0 0 0 0 Auburn 51 72 51 74 50 / 20 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 52 74 51 77 51 / 10 0 0 0 0 Troy 52 73 52 77 51 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/... None. && $$