555 FXUS63 KILX 232347 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 647 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018 Upper low across southern Missouri has spread showers into south- central Illinois with the northern periphery of the rain shield having a tough time edging further north. The main forecast challenge for the overnight hours is how far north the rain will go. Forecast soundings continue to indicate a very dry air mass below 10,000 feet early tonight across our central and northern counties before shortwave energy pivots north around the upper low to our south and brings enough lift across the central and northeast counties for scattered shower activity. West of the Illinois River, little if any rain is expected overnight into early Tuesday morning with before the shortwave shifts away from the forecast area. Models continue to show some additional lift pushing to our east around the departing upper low so will continue to keep 20-30 POPs going across the east on Tuesday. Temperatures will be a challenge Tuesday afternoon due to the extensive cloud cover. However, forecast soundings indicate areas west of I-55 may see enough breaks to push afternoon highs well into the 60s, possibly 70 degrees across the far western and northern parts of the forecast area, while our far east and southeast counties will be held down to the lower 60s due to the thicker cloud cover that is expected. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday) ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018 Models continue to suggest the next shortwave tracking southeast across the upper Great Lakes will remain well north of the forecast area while additional energy moving across the central Plains Tuesday night into Wednesday will keep the better lift and energy to our southwest. As a result, we should remain dry into Thursday. Will have to keep an eye on low temperatures early Thursday morning as guidance has lows dropping into the mid and upper 30s over parts of the forecast area. A stronger system is slated to push across the region Thursday night into Friday morning bringing a frontal boundary and the threat for scattered showers. Temperatures ahead of this disturbance on Thursday afternoon should warm into at least into the mid and upper 60s before we briefly cool down a few degrees on Friday. Models in decent agreement next weekend and into early next week as upper level heights gradually build over the central U.S. in response to a trof developing over the western U.S. As is usually the case, there are differences with respect to how quickly the western U.S. trof pushes east into the Plains next week and the eventual shower and thunderstorm chances. However, with the ridge building over the area during the weekend and into early next week, there will be an extended period of dry weather and warming temperatures with guidance suggesting our afternoon highs by Sunday and Monday of next week may approach 80 degrees. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 643 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018 Central Illinois will continue to be impacted by a slow moving area of low pressure through the 00Z TAF valid time. Light showers on the north side of the system are spreading west across the region this evening. The showers are accompanied by a rapid decrease to low-end MVFR or locally IFR conditions. The rainfall should not amount to much and will be ending later tonight. However, the low cloud CIGS should linger well into Tuesday. Easterly winds will trend northerly tonight as the system starts to pull away from the area. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Smith LONG TERM...Smith AVIATION...Bak