990 FXUS63 KILX 230001 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 701 PM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) ISSUED AT 203 PM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018 Dry air has been winning the battle so far in terms of the rain potential, with radar echoes generally reflective of mid level clouds in our area. Primary band of rain is over central/southern Missouri extending into the southeast U.S. Latest water vapor imagery and surface map shows the occluded storm system to our south, centered over northern Arkansas. This will wobble east-northeast through Monday, eventually centering over the Tennessee Valley by late afternoon. With the dry air, the rain threat will gradually expand northward with time, with some showers as far north as I-70 by sunrise. A few may develop in the afternoon as far west as the Illinois River, but mainly looking at I-55 east and most numerous over the southeast CWA. With the more widespread rain there, the coolest highs in the upper 50s can be expected along and south of I-70. Further northwest, some sunshine should help boost temperatures into the mid-upper 60s northwest of I-55. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday) ISSUED AT 203 PM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018 This system will not be in a big hurry to leave, but the digging upper wave over Canada will finally help push it along. This stronger wave will largely stay over the Great Lakes, with a separate wave currently over the Pacific Northwest moving into the central Plains by mid week. While that part of the week remains dry, a second Canadian shortwave will dig south on Thursday. Much of the rain with this system will be behind the surface cold front. The GFS remains the quickest with this feature, with a Thursday afternoon/evening passage across Illinois, while the latest European is about 12-18 hours slower. Not a lot of consistency at this point from run to run, so blended model solutions are struggling. Consequently, confidence in the Thursday night and Friday period is low at this time. Western parts of the CWA may get to 70 on Tuesday, while the cooler east remains plagued with more clouds and residual showers from the departing storm system. The rest of the week still trends below normal though not overly cold, with highs generally at least reaching 60 each day. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 656 PM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018 VFR aviation weather conditions expected to persist across the central Illinois terminals at least through Monday morning. However, by the afternoon hours, rainfall and low clouds may begin so spread into the area from the south. The rain and low cloud cover is associated with a slow moving area of low pressure passing south of the area, and confidence in the details with the rainfall threat and any lower CIGs is low. At this point, feel best chance for MVFR CIGS will be at KDEC and KCMI. These are also the most favored terminals for rainfall, but confidence is too low to include at this time. East to northeast winds will persist through the period, with gusts returning by the Monday afternoon hours. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Geelhart LONG TERM...Geelhart AVIATION...Bak