357 
FXUS64 KHGX 122057
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
357 PM CDT Thu Apr 12 2018

.DISCUSSION...
The airmass across SE TX is continuing to moisten today with the  
strong/gusty onshore flow persisting. With the tight gradient in 
place, we will continue to see elevated S/SE winds tonight. This 
strong WAA could produce a few isolated showers over the coastal
waters/counties by sunrise. 

Overall, not going with a whole lot of changes with the upcoming 
forecast as models remain on track with the passage of the upper 
trof and its associated cold front tomorrow (through early Sat). 
The main upper trof is progged to begin moving east (from around
the Four Corners area) Friday. Diurnal destabilization/increased 
forcing through the day will be fighting the strong cap over the 
region as the upper trof axis approaches from the west. Per out-
look from SPC, the best chances for strong/severe storms will be
over our N/NE counties...and even better for points further N/NE
of us through tomorrow evening. A second round of storms will be
possible with the cold front itself late tomorrow night into the
early hours of Saturday. However, instability/available moisture
should be rather limited. This cold front should clear the coast
by mid Saturday morning with skies gradually clearing during the
day. Cooler (colder) and drier weather expected the remainder of
the weekend with a warming trend by the start of next week. 41

&&

.MARINE...
Deepening low pressure over SE CO will create a tight pressure 
gradient and resultant strong onshore winds tonight and tomorrow. A 
SCEC is in effect for all waters through 10 PM CDT today, and 
through 4 AM CDT Friday for the Bays and 0-20 nm Gulf waters. A 
Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the 20-60 nm waters from 10 PM 
CDT tonight through 4 AM CDT tomorrow, and will be further extended 
temporally and spatially through Friday. The long and persistent 
onshore fetch will produce slightly elevated tide levels and water 
levels may rise a foot or so above normal. An elevated risk of rip 
currents and wave run up will last through early Saturday. The next 
front will move off the coast early Saturday morning with showers 
and thunderstorms possible. Strong offshore winds will develop in 
the wake of the front and another Small Craft Advisory will be 
required for the Gulf waters. Winds will veer to the east on Monday 
and become southeasterly Monday night. 22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      70  81  52  68  41 /  20  60  60  10   0 
Houston (IAH)              71  83  59  70  43 /  10  50  50  20   0 
Galveston (GLS)            71  80  63  70  51 /  10  30  60  20  10 

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through late tonight for the 
     following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the 
     Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High 
     Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda 
     Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM CDT Friday 
     for the following zones: Waters from Freeport to the 
     Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High 
     Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 10 PM CDT this evening 
     for the following zones: Waters from Freeport to the 
     Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High 
     Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...99