959 FXUS66 KLOX 121826 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 1126 AM PDT Thu Apr 12 2018 .SYNOPSIS...12/1057 AM. Gusty winds are forecast into Friday, with possible precipitation around the mountains this afternoon. A couple of highs and offshore flow should arrive, one on Friday and Saturday and again on Tuesday and Wednesday, that may bring above normal temperatures. A couple of lows will arrive, one late Sunday, the other late next week, to bring cool temperatures and possible precipitation, mainly north of Santa Barbara and in the mountains. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...12/928 AM. Strong winds have arrived on schedule and with the expected intensity. Also getting a little snow near the Grapevine. Expecting gusty winds to continue through this evening at least before decreasing but still remaining breezy into Friday morning as the flow shift to northeast. Across srn SB County there will be a second peak of winds later tonight as the northwest flow shift to northeast and starts to pound the western portion of the Santa Ynez range. SBA-BFL gradient ramps up to around -6mb at 5am Friday so the high wind warning for that area will need to be extended at least until 9 am Friday. It definitely looks like a scenario where the hills above Montecito will easily get wind gusts in excess of 60 mph. Unfortunately the weather station there was burned in the Thomas fire so we won't get those reports but confidence is high in a strong wind event there tonight. ***From previous discussion*** North winds switch offshore and weaken considerable by Friday morning with a chance of advisory level winds continuing mainly across the LA/VTA mountains. The offshore flow, rapidly rising H5 heights (568 dm to 578 dm) due to ridging aloft and sunny skies will support about 10 degrees of warming to many areas widespread highs in to 70s and a few low 80s for coastal valleys. The warming trend continues into Saturday as H5 heights peak around 580 dm with lingering weak offshore flow in the morning. Flow is expected to shift onshore by the afternoon. This will result in several degree of warming, especially away from the coast, with highs in warmer valleys into the 80s. Some increases in mid to high level clouds are possible by Saturday evening ahead of a storm system approaching from the west. .LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...12/401 AM. Near normal confidence exists for the extended period despite above average model agreement. Onshore flow is expected to increase in earnest Sunday with gusty but likely below advisory level winds for far interior areas. High clouds will likely also be on the increase with a chance of low clouds returning to coastal areas, mainly north of Point Conception Sunday evening. These ingredients combined with H5 heights lowering from around 578 dm Saturday to around 572 dm Sunday will support significant cooling most everywhere with far interior areas seeing little change in high temperatures. A weakening cold front will bring a chance of mainly light rain to SLO county Sunday evening and most areas north of Point Conception Monday. This system may have a bit more westerly flow with it than the current system moving overhead. As a result there is about a 10 percent chance of the front holding together and bringing rain to areas south of Point Conception. Light snow is possible above 4000 feet with any lingering shower activity behind the cold front. The cloud cover and below normal heights will likely result in near to below normal temperatures for most areas Monday. Moderate northerly to offshore flow with clearing skies and weak ridging aloft will bring a brief, but likely modest warm up by Tuesday or Wednesday ahead of a potential third storm system, currently pegged to pass through the area next Thursday. && .AVIATION...12/1825Z. At 1712Z at KLAX, there was no marine inversion. The northern slopes of the transverse mountains were mostly cloudy with some mountain obscuration. Elsewhere, very strong north flow was causing widespread strong gusty north to northwest winds across the area. Turbulence and low level wind shear are possible almost everywhere today as the strong flow interacts with the complex terrain. The conditions will continue throughout the day, scale back in coverage tonight and improve by Friday. KLAX...High confidence in the 18Z TAF. Possible LLWS all day and into this evening. Possible gusty north crosswinds this evening. KBUR...High confidence in the 18z TAF. Possible LLWS all day and into this evening. && .MARINE...12/943 AM. Widespread gale force winds are expected across all waters today in the wake of a dry cold front that has almost exited the southern waters. The winds will continue through the night, except decrease in coverage for the inner waters after midnight. Conditions are expected to improve somewhat on Friday. However, there is also a large northwest swell moving through the coastal waters and in combination with the winds will create very rough seas through tonight. The swell is expected to gradually subside on Friday. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...High Surf Advisory in effect until 5 PM PDT Friday for zones 34-35. (See LAXCFWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect until 10 PM PDT this evening for zones 34>36-40-87. (See LAXNPWLOX). High Wind Warning in effect until noon PDT Friday for zones 39-52. (See LAXNPWLOX). High Surf Advisory in effect until 8 AM PDT Friday for zones 39>41-87. (See LAXCFWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect until noon PDT Friday for zones 41-44-45-88-547. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect until 6 PM PDT this evening for zone 46. (See LAXNPWLOX). High Wind Warning in effect from 6 PM this evening to 1 AM PDT Friday for zone 46. (See LAXNPWLOX). High Wind Warning in effect until 1 AM PDT Friday for zones 53-54-59. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Gale Warning in effect until 11 PM PDT this evening for zones 645-650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect until 5 AM PDT Friday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && .HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK (SAT-WED). Gusty northwest winds will be possible Monday into Monday night. && $$ PUBLIC...MW/Munroe AVIATION...Sweet MARINE...Sweet SYNOPSIS...STu weather.gov/losangeles