386 FXUS61 KCAR 111912 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 312 PM EDT Wed Apr 11 2018 .SYNOPSIS... An occluded front will approach from the northwest this evening and weaken over the region tonight. High pressure builds Thursday. Low pressure will track eastward from the Great Lakes region Thursday and cross the region Thursday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure continues to retreat this evening as the decaying occlusion approaches. This front and associated upper level shortwave have very little moisture, and although upper clouds will increase overnight, precipitation amounts will amount to no more than a few hundredths...mostly in the western zones. Have gone with higher pops later this evening in the western zones since the front will disintegrate as it traverses the state. The clouds will keep lows from dropping below the mid to upper 20s north and around 30F for Bangor. High pressure at the surface and aloft rebuild later tonight into Thursday. Warm air advection with this ridge will generate highs several degrees warmer today. Between fair weather cu and increasing high clouds later in the day, will go with partly sunny in most zones. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Low pressure will move northeast away from New England Friday with a cold front behind the low becoming stationary over the State. The cold front will becoming stationary over the region Saturday which will result in occasionally precipitation in the form of rain across the south and central areas with some snow in the far north. Will use the precipitation type from thickness tool and Snow ratio grids for this time period. Strong high pressure will build down from the north late in the day Saturday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Strong high pressure will pass to the north of the region Sunday and bring dry conditions to the far north of the area and showers in the far south. Intensifying low pressure will approach from the south Sunday Night and Monday and pass to the west of the State Monday and Tuesday. Precipitation from this system is expected to start as snow in most areas and quickly change to rain Sunday Night. Rain is expected to continue into the day Tuesday. Showers and Snow showers are possible Wednesday. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR until late tonight when a brief period of snow could provide an hour or two of IFR to FVE. Otherwise, there's a chance of a few hours of high IFR or low MVFR cigs early Thursday morning before VFR returns for all terminals by mid- morning. NAM/SREF moisture fields in the boundary layer look overdone...as often is the case. SHORT TERM: MVFR/VFR conditions are expected on Friday and Saturday. VFR conditions are expected Sunday. IFR conditions are possible Monday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: No significant weather is expected. Winds and seas will increase later Thursday ahead of the low pressure system. SHORT TERM: Have used a 50/50 blend of the Nam and Gfs for sustained winds. For Waves: A strong southerly fetch is expected to develop across the Gulf of Maine Thursday Night with wave heights building to 7-8 feet/8 seconds by late Thursday Night then subside during the day Friday. An east to southeast fetch is expected to develop across the Gulf of Maine Sunday Night and continue into Monday with wave heights building to 6-7 feet/8 seconds. Will use the NWPS for waves. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...MCW Short Term...Mignone Long Term...Mignone Aviation...MCW/Mignone Marine...MCW/Mignone