664 FXUS61 KCAR 011304 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 904 AM EDT Sun Apr 1 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will track northwest of Maine today drawing a cold front across the area. High pressure will build across the region tonight through Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Update... Precipitation has been slow to develop and have reduced rain/snow chances with this update. Little or no snow accumulation is expected. Have also updated to adjust for current conditions. Previous Discussion... Low pressure will track northwest of Maine today drawing a cold front across the forecast area. Light snow/rain will occur in advance of the front, then taper to showers before ending in the wake of the front this afternoon with decreasing clouds. Forecast soundings indicate strong winds aloft today with enough mixing to help bring the winds to the surface. Southwest to west winds could gust up to around 40 mph today. High pressure will build across the region tonight with partly cloudy/mostly clear skies. Winds will also diminish tonight with the weakening pressure gradient and loss of diurnal mixing. High temperatures today will occur in advance of the cold front. High temperatures will range from the lower to mid 40s north, to the upper 40s to around 50 Downeast. Low temperatures tonight will generally range from around 10 to around 15 north, though locally colder readings are possible across northwest areas. Temperatures across interior Downeast areas will generally range from around 20 to the lower 20s, with mid 20s along the Downeast coast. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Expect weak high pressure over the area early Monday to weaken during the day Monday as low pressure moves east northeast into the Atlantic well south of the Gulf of Maine. Weak high pressure will build back across the region early Tuesday. Intensifying low pressure will move into the Great Lakes Tuesday afternoon then pass close to Western Maine Tuesday night. Rain is expected to develop across the region during the day Tuesday then change to snow in the north Tuesday evening as diurnal temperatures drop. Later Tuesday night expect the snow in the north to change to freezing rain and sleet. Rain will continue over the south. Have used the precipitation from thickness tool run on a 50/50 blend of the Nam and Gfs. Also used equal blend of the Gfs and Nam for QPF and pops. For Snow accumulation have used the Snow Ratio Blender. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Intensifying low pressure will move north of the region on Wednesday night and Thursday. Expect colder air to move in behind the departing low with snow showers expected Wednesday night. Dry conditions are expected Thursday. Snow is possible Friday as low pressure approaches from the west and moves across the region. Snow showers are possible Saturday. && .AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: Occasional MVFR conditions are possible across the region this morning, mostly across northern and central areas. VFR conditions are then expected this afternoon through tonight. Low level wind shear is a concern early this morning. Southwest to west winds will then gust up to around 40 mph late this morning into the afternoon. Winds will diminish early tonight. SHORT TERM: Expect VFR conditions Monday into Tuesday morning. Expect IFR conditions Tuesday afternoon through the day Wednesday. Expect VFR conditions Thursday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the intracoastal waters though this afternoon. Across the remainder of the waters, a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through early Monday morning. A few wind gusts could approach gale levels early today. Visibilities could be reduced in any rain or showers through early afternoon. SHORT TERM: Have used a 50/50 blend of the Nam and Gfs for sustained winds. For waves: Southwest wind wave is expected to be the primary wave system Monday. A strong southerly fetch is expected to develop across the Gulf of Maine late Tuesday and continue into Wednesday. Wave heights expected to build to 10 feet/14-15 seconds Wednesday. The GFS/Wavewatch winds may be too strong so will use the NWPS/00Z Run which used lighter winds for Wednesday. For water levels favor the ESTOFS Surge as this model appears to be responding to event Tuesday Night into Thursday better. Surge model does appear to have low bias for this event so will raise surge level by half a foot Tuesday night into Thursday. Wave splashover could be an issue Wednesday with total water level approaching 13 feet. && .HYDROLOGY... No river flooding is expected during the next several days, but as we move into April an ice jam is always a possibility with little or no advance notice. Temperatures will be below average much of the time over the next week to 10 days, which will slow snow melt and help the ice to gradually weaken. The most likely areas for ice movement this week will be in central basins, including the Piscataquis and tributaries of the upper Penobscot rivers where the ice is thinner. Ice movement would appear to be unlikely in far northern Maine on the Aroostook and Saint John Rivers, but it is always a good idea to be vigilant if you have any interests along the rivers as the majority of ice jams in northern Maine occur in April. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ052. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Monday for ANZ050-051. && $$ Near Term...Norcross Short Term...Mignone Long Term...Mignone Aviation...Norcross/Mignone Marine...Norcross/Mignone Hydrology...CB/Norcross