288 FXUS61 KBTV 241925 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 325 PM EDT Sat Mar 24 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A trough of low pressure aloft will prevail across the North Country this weekend with below normal temperatures and a few scattered snow shower expected. Given the lack of moisture any snowfall will be light and under an inch. Temperatures will be mainly in the 30s today, but warm into the 40s to lower 50s by Tuesday with increasing amounts of sunshine. Our next weather maker impacts our region with rain showers Wednesday into Thursday with temperatures in the mid 40s to lower 50s. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 211 PM EDT Saturday...Latest low level WV imagery really shows the story as the upper level trough over Quebec continues to push south. There's a really sharp gradient in the moisture aloft so whereas much of eastern New England has cloud cover the North Country really only has some scattered cumulus clouds. The cold air advection aloft continues to push into the region and so I think we've either topped out or will only warm a degree or so through the rest of the day before temps start cooling back off. The next short wave that will bring a chance of showers to the region is interesting because while it lack moisture, the dynamics, as the previous forecast mentioned, look fairly strong. The best energy will track west with over Lake Ontario with the best moisture east generally over New Hampshire. There's a small window in which a spoke of energy pulls back west into the parent upper level trough and when that happens I anticipate snow showers moving from east to west across the Northeast Kingdom and into the Champlain Valley. Given the low pwats and lack of sufficient moisture its likely more of a high PoP low qpf event where much of northeastern Vermont will see snow but not much in the way of accumulation. Anticipate generally a dusting with up to an inch of new snow. Heading into Sunday the clouds will be clearing as the dry air from an advancing ridge starts to build in. We'll still be under cold air advection so temps will only warm into the mid 30s but with sunny skies that will feel quite pleasant as another sign of Spring starting to arrive across the North Country. The clearing skies and decoupling winds overnight will lead to another chilly night Sunday night. Strong radiational cooling will occur with single digits to teens for the North Country. I've continued the idea from the past couple of days worth of forecasters in going well below forecast guidance for temps Sunday night. Anticipate a low at Saranac Lake and the Northeast Kingdom in the ball park of -1F to 3F which would be about 20 degrees below normal. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 325 PM EDT Saturday...High pressure settles in right over the area for Monday and Monday night. Should see plenty of sunshine, light winds, dry weather and lower dew points...which will allow for a good diurnal swing in temperatures and we should finally see above normal temperatures with highs generally in the 40s. One more cool night Monday night with clear skies and light winds resulting in lows generally in the 15 to 25 degree range...but some single digits in the northern Adirondacks and far northeast Vermont. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 325 PM EDT Saturday...Southwest flow aloft develops over the area and persists through much of the week. Warm air advection and increasing moisture will result in above normal temperatures through the week with highs in the 40s...and some spots hitting 50 degrees on Tuesday and Thursday. The increasing moisture means more clouds across the area and thus low temperatures will not be as cold as the past couple of days with most night generally in the 30s. Precipitation chances will also be increasing as a result of the southwest flow aloft and looking at the Tuesday night through Thursday night period as the main window for chances of rain showers...with some snow showers at night. Looks like by Saturday we transition out of the southwest flow pattern and cooler and drier air moves in for Saturday. && .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 18Z Sunday...VFR conditions prevail under few to scattered CU clouds this afternoon before a system brings increasing clouds and MVFR ceilings to portions of the area overnight. The combination of increasing moisture and short wave energy will help to lower ceilings to the 2500-3500 foot range overnight with the next chance of MVFR at BTV/SLK/MPV. With the shortwave some light snow will swing from east to west across the northern portion of the area so I've included a 3SM -sn tempo group at both SLK/MPV. By Sunday morning skies will be clearing and VFR will begin to prevail for an extended period of time. Outlook... Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN. Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN. Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Deal/Taber NEAR TERM...Deal SHORT TERM...Evenson LONG TERM...Evenson AVIATION...Deal