155 FXUS64 KBMX 120005 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 705 PM CDT Sun Mar 11 2018 .UPDATED... Aviation Discussion. && .SHORT TERM... Tonight through Monday. --Continued cloudiness with another opportunity for showers tonight; clearing sky and chilly breezes on Monday-- At 20:30Z/3:30PM, GOES-16 water vapor showed an upper trough over MO, which is forecast to move through the region tonight/into early Monday and eventually aid in a deepening surface low, turned Nor'easter, off the Eastern U.S. coastline. The upper trough will push a front/associated rain showers through Central Alabama tonight, with wrap-around moisture across the comma head region centered over the TN Valley. This is a cold upper trough, with a good envelope of low-level/850mb cold advection as well. Temperature profiles (excluding the surface) are progged to fall below 0C/32F tonight in a northwest-to-southeast fashion late overnight-early Monday morning, before moderating a touch through Monday. This is only worth mentioning given the potential for wrap-around moisture. Right now, assuming the track and pivot of the upper trough/low, there's just a slim chance that there'd be spotty light precipitation reaching this far south, and overlapping the period of cold air, as the bulk of deeper moisture/precipitation remains well toward the north/northeast. If an overlap were to occur, a snow flurry would be possible early Monday morning, limited to the northeasternmost points of the forecast area. Impacts are not expected. Low temperatures should be around the mid-upper 30s north to low-mid 40s south. Drier air will steadily advect into the region behind the departing upper trough/low, which will erode our overcast cloud deck from west- to-east and yield sunshine all areas by/into Monday afternoon. Northwesterly breezes will increase overnight behind the frontal passage, and last through the day due to a pressure gradient between the deepening downstream surface low and upstream surface high. Gusty winds will relax around sunset. High temperatures will be in the 50s area-wide, perhaps some pockets of upper 40s in higher terrain. *Right now, winds (sustained and gusts) are just shy of Wind Advisory criteria; however, we'll need to take another look during the next 1-2 shifts for possible issuance for Monday, especially across the eastern part of the CWA where the pressure gradient will be highest (even more-so farther east). 89^GSatterwhite .LONG TERM... Tuesday through Saturday. High pressure will build into the area behind the upper low on the backside of the eastern CONUS trough. This will help provide the area with another shot of colder air through the end of the week. At this time it looks like Wednesday and Thursday mornings will be the coldest with another widespread freeze/frost across the area. Continued to go below model blends by a few degrees as there will likely be some radiational cooling that the models have a hard time at calculating. With such an amplified trough in the east, there will be an equally amplified ridge developing to our west. This system will slide into the area by Friday and we will see warmer temperatures and the approach of the next system that will likely work into the area by next weekend. Will need to monitor the model trends on this system as warmer temperatures could allow for better dynamics to work into the area increasing a severe risk, but at this time there are too many uncertainties. So overall, look for drier and cooler temperatures through midweek and then a modified airmass will move into the area with more Spring-like temperatures by the end of the week. 16 && .AVIATION... 00Z TAF Discussion. Currently, a mix of low clouds and fog is causing flight reductions to MVFR and IFR. An area of light rain showers will move across the area from west to east tonight. Although a slight improvement in both cig and vis as showers pass over each terminal is possible, expect conditions to remain at MVFR/IFR overnight. The showers are associated with a surface front. As the front passes, surface winds will turn to the northwest and increase significantly. Speeds should average 16-21 knots, at least, with gusts between 25-30 knots overnight and through Monday before relaxing around sunset. Drier air will advect into the region with time behind the front, causing rising cloud bases and an eventual clearing sky/return to VFR from west- to-east by/into Monday afternoon. 14 && .FIRE WEATHER... Showers and storms to impact the area during the day and into tonight. Rain finally ends on the day Monday with dry conditions through the much of next week. Visibilities will be restricted at times due to the rain, but fog is not expected to be a big impact through Sunday. KBDI values remain very low due to recent rainfall and will likely remain that way with the upcoming rains, so there are no fire weather concerns. 16 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 38 52 30 54 26 / 60 20 0 0 0 Anniston 38 52 31 55 27 / 60 20 0 0 0 Birmingham 38 53 33 56 29 / 60 10 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 39 56 34 58 29 / 60 10 0 0 0 Calera 38 54 33 56 30 / 60 10 0 0 0 Auburn 41 53 31 56 30 / 60 10 0 0 0 Montgomery 42 56 33 60 31 / 60 10 0 0 0 Troy 42 55 34 59 32 / 50 10 0 0 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/... None. && $$