189 FXUS62 KMHX 081604 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1104 AM EST Thu Mar 8 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over the midwest will move south of the area through Friday then offshore Saturday. Strong low pressure will move through the region Sunday then deepen and move northeast away from the area early next week as high pressure builds in from the northwest. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 1045 AM Thursday...minor update for sky cover and winds. Some thin SCU/AC spreading in with shortwave this morning but is dissipating moving into very dry airmass. Do expect some thicker cloud cover from NW late afternoon into evening associated with stronger shortwave around bottom of upper low moving across to north. Surface ridging from SW producing more NW-N winds eastern half of area this morning but expected to become W-NW this afternoon with lee troughing inland. /Previous discussion/ As of 620 AM Thu...Some SCU approaching inland areas with another batch near Albemarle Sound. Think for the most part clouds will be limited into early aftn then may increase late as strong short wave begins to cross N of area. Thicknesses support well below normal highs in the upr 40s/low 50s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/... As of 220 AM Thu...Any lingering clouds assoc with short wave passing to the N will be offshore by mid evening with clr skies rest of the night. Winds will diminish inland with cold lows in upr 20s to lower 30s. Breeze will keep beaches a bit warmer mainly mid 30s. Growing season has started for OBX and temps could get close to freezing nrn tier but will keep just above with no headlines as looks too dry for frost. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 320 AM Thu... Quiet weather through Saturday, then a developing low will lift towards the Carolinas Sunday, followed by high pressure building in late Monday through midweek. Expect below normal temperatures throughout this period. Friday and Saturday... Surface high pressure will be over the Gulf State Friday and gradually slide off the GA/FL coast Saturday. An increase of clouds will filter into the region as the sfc high off the Southeast coast; pumping Gulf moisture into the region. Expect mostly sunny skies Friday with clouds increasing and thickening/lowering Saturday. Temperatures will reach into the low 50s inland and upper 40s to around 50 degrees along the Outer Banks. Overnight lows in the low/mid 30s inland and upper 30s/low 40s along the beaches Friday. Saturday night lows will be milder with temps dropping into the low/mid 40s inland and mid/low 50s along the beaches. Saturday night through Monday... Overall, the models have been consistent with the trends of the low pressure developing over the Southern Plains Saturday and moving towards the Carolinas on Sunday. The GFS Ensembles/Canadian/Euro are in good agreement with the track and strength of the low. These models suggest the low will move off the off the GA/SC coast with the center just to the south of Eastern NC and tracking along or east of the Gulf Stream Sunday night, while the GFS model has the low moving across the area Sunday night. Expect rain to spread into the area late Saturday and becoming widespread Sunday and lingering into Monday as the low lifts away from the area. Expect highs in the mid 50s to around 60 degrees Sunday, then cooler temperatures Monday with highs in the low 50s across the area. Tuesday through Thursday... Cool/Dry airmass will build into the region from the west. Expect mostly sunny/clear skies with highs ranging in the low 50s inland to upper 40s along the Outer Banks. && .AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Short Term /through Tonight/... As of 620 AM Thu...High confidence in VFR thru period. Sfc high pres will grad build in from the W with with dry airmass over area. There will be a strong short wave passing N of region late today into this evening and could see some high based Cu spread in today with poss bkn cigs...best chc late today into this evening. Skies shld become clr later tonight in wake of short wave. Long Term /Fri through Monday/... As of 320 AM Thu...VFR conditions will continue through Sat as high pressure moves off the Southeast coast Sat with sub-VFR developing Sunday as rain spreads into the area with possible IFR late Sunday into Monday. Conditions will improve back to VFR Monday afternoon. && .MARINE... Short Term /Today and tonight/... As of 1045 AM Thursday...No significant changes with update. N-NW winds 10-15 KT this morning becoming W-NW this afternoon. /Previous discussion/ As of 620 AM Thu...No signif changes with WNW winds mainly 10 to 15 kts today. In wake of strong short wave crossing to the N expect WNW winds to increase to 15 to 25 kts tonight. The ENE swell is slowly subsiding but will keep seas in the 5 to 8 foot range most wtrs today and 4 to 7 feet tonight so SCA conts. Looks like will see gusts to 25 kts Pamlico Sound tonight so added a brief SCA between 00Z and 12Z. Long Term /Fri through Monday/... As of 320 AM Thu...Small Craft Advisory will continue through Friday for most of the coastal waters, except the central waters which will continue through Saturday morning. Lingering NE swells will continue to impact of waters from the big/deep low over the Atlantic. W winds 15-25 knots Friday as the gradient is pinched with the exiting low pressure system to the NNE and high pressure sliding into the Southeast region. Winds will finally decrease Saturday, becoming WSW 10-20 knots, then 10-15 knots Saturday night. Winds will gradually increase with the approaching low Sunday with winds becoming E 10-20 knots, then NE 15-25 knot Monday. Sea will slowly subside Friday with seas becoming 4-6 ft and subsiding further 3-5 ft Saturday with the highest along the outer central waters. Seas will finally become 2-4 ft Sunday, before seas build back Sunday night as the low approaches the region. Mostly likely Small Craft Advisory will be in effect during this timeframe. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 620 AM Thu...Extended high surf advisory for OBX til 18z. Still getting some 7 to 8 foot seas with periods around 15 seconds that would lead to breakers near 8 ft. May cont to see some minor localized overwash during high tide around noon. Swell is fcst to slowly subside today into tonight hopefully ending the high surf threat after this morning high tide. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...High Surf Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for NCZ103- 104. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Friday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Friday for AMZ150-156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RF NEAR TERM...RF/JBM SHORT TERM...RF LONG TERM...BM AVIATION...RF/BM MARINE...RF/JBM/BM TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX