613 
FXUS65 KFGZ 211114
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
415 AM MST Wed Feb 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Expect mainly dry and cool conditions today, with a 
few snow showers near the New Mexico border by this evening. A dry 
and windy day will develop Thursday, as another cold storms system 
approaches for Friday. This storm will bring light accumulating 
snowfall to much of the area on Friday, with drying and warming for 
the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Expect cold and mainly dry conditions again today 
ahead of a weak trough set to move through Arizona this afternoon 
and evening. Normally, a trough like this would generate a fair 
amount of showers. However, the airmass left in the wake of our last 
storm is so dry, many areas will not even notice a trough passage. 
The exception is out east, where enough low-level moisture remains 
to generate some showers late today and tonight, before the system 
moves into New Mexico.

On Thursday, dry, stable and cool westerly flow develops, ahead of a 
stronger trough due Thursday night and Friday. This is another deep 
and cold system, that will have a bit more moisture and instability 
associated with it, as well as a dynamic cold front.

We anticipate another round of light to locally moderate snowfall 
from late Thursday night through Friday evening as a result. The 
best locations for this will be from northwestern to central 
Arizona, before the storm shears out and lifts to the northeast 
Friday night. Ahead of the front will be more gusty southwest winds 
on Thursday, most areas near advisory criteria. Will hold off on an 
advisory for now, in case timing and intensity changes.

Mainly dry, cool and stable conditions follow this storm for the 
weekend, ahead of a potentially stronger storm toward the middle of 
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 12z package...VFR conditions will prevail today 
under increasing mid level clouds. Cigs will remain at or above 6kft 
AGL. Winds will be southwest at generally 10-20 kts. A few light 
showers are possible aft 00Z along the New Mexico border. Aviation 
discussion not updated for amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Predominantly dry and cool weather will continue 
through Thursday afternoon. Expect increasing cloud cover today. 
Winds will be southwesterly, and will increase Thursday afternoon 
and remain breezy Thursday night ahead of an approaching cold front. 
Rain and mountain snow showers will develop Thursday night. 

Friday through Sunday...The cold front will move through northern 
Arizona on Friday bringing another round of rain and accumulating 
mountain snow with continued breezy winds. Snow will be possible as 
low as the 4,000 foot elevation level. Showers will end by Saturday 
with cool weather through the weekend.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...MCT
FIRE WEATHER...MCT


For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff