211 FXUS62 KMHX 191807 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 107 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will continue off the coast through mid week and produce a very warm southerly flow across the region. A weakening cold front will move into the area late week then dissipate or lift north next weekend. Another front will move through the area late this weekend or early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1 pm Monday...Quite a range in temperatures early this afternoon. Upper 60s to lower 70s overthe southern counties with mid to upper 50s to the north. Visual satellite loop shows breaks in the clouds spreading into the cooler areas so will leave afternoon highs as is. Showers expected to remain isolated so capped PoPs at 20%. Prev disc...The synoptic scale pattern which has been advertised for several days is now coming to fruition with an anomalously strong and persistent upper ridge building over the southeast. This will help to anchor surface high pressure over the Atlantic producing a southerly flow of warm air across the region for much if not all of the upcoming week. Today, a coastal trough/warm front will begin to shift north across the area with winds veering from East this morning to Southeast by evening. Associated warm advection and low level convergence will combine with very moist air with PW values forecast to be around 1.5" and lead to widespread clouds and scattered showers especially across the northern zones this morning. Will use a blend of MOS PoPs with 20% southeast coast and 50% north. Clouds will limit heating but SE flow and some filtered sunshine should allow high temperatures to reach the upper 60s to lower 70s inland and low to mid 60s coast. && .SHORT TERM / TUESDAY THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/... As of 610 AM Monday...Winds will continue to veer to the South tonight around the offshore high. The low levels will remain moist while the mid levels really dry out after 00Z. Despite this drying, the models continue to generate very light QPF amounts tonight (a few hundreths of an inch), while the GFS and ECMWF MOS are in very good agreement with 20-40% PoPs suggesting a shallow low QPF precipitation event. In addition would expect widespread low clouds to develop with the potential for dense advection fog to form inland and along the coast. Could see widespread visibilities below 1/2 mile develop by late evening. Lows will be mild for February in the mid to upper 50s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 230 AM Mon...Strengthening high pressure offshore will be the dominant feature through late week, supporting temperatures well above normal. A slow moving cold front will approach the region from the west mid to late week, possibly moving through the region late week. Another front is progged to push through the area late this weekend into early next week. See Climate section below for temp records. Tuesday through Wednesday...The high will cont off the coast through Wed as upr rdg builds off the coast. Mainly dry Tue thru Wed Night with area in warm sector with little to no forcing, though an isolated shower will be possible along the coast, esp early Tuesday. Very mild this period with highs 75 to 80 dgr range Tue and Wed. Beaches as usual will be cooler with mainly upper 60s to low 70s. Areas of low clouds and fog will be possible each night/early morning. Thursday through Monday...A weak cold front is forecast to push southward into the area Thu afternoon and Thu night, then wash out or lift back to the north Friday. Isolated showers possible Thu through Sat, and kept small pops, with front over region but moisture and forcing look weak with little in the way of rainfall expected. At this time best chance looks like late Thu into Fri, mainly across the northern forecast area. Highs Thu will again reach 75 to 80 inland with warm sector conditions. Bit cooler Fri...however hgts/thicknesses remain high so mild temps cont with upr 60s/lower 70s inland to lower/mid 60s along the coast. High pressure offshore strengthens over the area Sat and Sun. Increasing heights/thicknesses and low level SW flow Sat and Sun, support highs upper 60s along the coast, and mid/upper 70s inland. The next front approaches the area Sunday, likely moving through Sun night into early Mon. The GFS is much more progressive, while the EC is slower and looks to stall it off the coast early next week. Scattered showers possible. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Short Term /through Tue/... As of 1 pm Monday...A mixed bag of ceiling categories at the 4 terminals early this afteroon, ranging from VFR to MVFR. Think there will be a brief period of VFR throughout from 20Z-00Z followed by MVFR developing early this evening. After that there is a strong signal in the guidance for LIFR/IFR conditions to develop in fog and low ceilings as the low levels become saturated in the southerly flow around Atlantic high pressure. Ceilings will lift to VFR in the late morning to early afternoon with a light southerly wind. Long Term /Tuesday night through Friday/... As of 230 AM Mon...Forecast soundings and guidance support low ceilings and areas of fog developing each night/early morning, with widespread sub-VFR conditions. && .MARINE... Short Term /through tonight/... As of 1 pm Monday...No changes to zones. Winds are SE to S across the zones at 5-15 knots. Seas are 2-3 ft north to 3-5 south. Seas at Diamond are at 5.6 feet but will not issue small craft advisory as this is likely isolated to the warm water eddy in the vicinity of the buoy and does not represent the entire zone. Winds will veer to S 10-15 kt tonight in response to high pressure off the coast. Seas will subside to 2-4 ft throughout tonight. Long Term /Tuesday through Friday/... As of 230 AM Mon...Strengthening high pressure offshore will be the dominant feature through most of the period. A weak cold front is forecast to push south into the area late Thursday and Thursday night, before washing out or lifting back to the north Friday. S/SW winds 5-15 kt expected Tue through Thu, with seas 2-4 ft. A brief period of northerly winds likely Thu night into Friday, before returning to S/SW. && .CLIMATE... Temps could approach records this week. Record High Temps 2/20 (Tuesday) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR Cape Hatteras 71/1994 Greenville 81/1991 Jacksonville 82/1991 Kinston 81/1991 Morehead City 73/1994 New Bern 81/1991 Record High Temps 2/21 (Wednesday) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR Cape Hatteras 75/1989 Greenville 80/1922 Jacksonville 78/2011 Kinston 79/2011 Morehead City 71/1971 New Bern 79/2011 Record High Temps 2/22 (Thursday) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR Cape Hatteras 76/1971 Greenville 80/2003 Jacksonville 77/2003 Kinston 78/2003 Morehead City 72/1971 New Bern 80/1980 && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JME NEAR TERM...HSA/JME SHORT TERM...JME LONG TERM...CQD AVIATION...HSA/JME/CQD MARINE...HSA/JME/CQD CLIMATE...MHX