331 FXUS64 KFWD 150946 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 346 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2018 .SHORT TERM... /Today and Tonight/ Breezy and well above normal warmth is anticipated today. Measurable rainfall doesn't appear likely, though areas across East and Central Texas will have the opportunity for some patchy drizzle or a few sprinkles. The better rain chances, albeit still low, will come during the pre-dawn hours for areas near and east of I-35 and north of I-20. Much cooler conditions are also anticipated on Friday in the wake of the front and that will be detailed in the Long Term portion of the AFD. Satellite imagery at this hour indicates that a plume of low level stratus continues to surge northward. This moist plume has been aided by a 50 knot low level jet per VWP. The increase in low level moisture and wind speeds has allowed temperatures to remain in the 60s across most of the area. The increase in winds should largely mitigate any significant reductions in visibility and I've opted for patchy drizzle in lieu of fog for this morning. Some visibility may fall into the 3 to 5 SM range, but I don't anticipate a repeat of Wednesday morning with Dense Fog that occurred mostly across the Brazos River Valley and parts of East Texas. I'll also add in a mention of sprinkles through the morning hours mainly near and east of I-35 as there remains some weak ascent. Measurable rainfall appears unlikely. Breezy south to southwest winds of 15 to 20 MPH with gusts to near 25 MPH will continue through the day and clouds will erode from west to east as southwesterly winds occur. With a southwest wind, temperatures will climb above normal values---especially where partly sunny skies are observed. Skies shouldn't be completely clear as a veil of mid/high level clouds will linger even after stratus dissipates. Highs today should climb into the mid to upper 80s out across the Big Country with 80s closer to the I-35 corridor. Locales east of I-35 will likely remain mostly cloudy and temperatures will be held in the low to mid 70s. Similar to yesterday, if clearing occurs more readily/farther east, these forecast high temperatures (across East Texas) may be too low. For tonight breezy conditions will persist, though the magnitude of the wind speeds will decrease as the surface trough approaches and loosens the pressure gradient. Moisture should still have the ability to lift northward into the area and by midnight a cold front, currently across northern Kansas, should enter some of our counties along the Red River. Ongoing convection across Oklahoma should slip southward ahead of this boundary into the aformentioned counties, especially east of I-35. While activity will be convective in nature, MUCAPE values are quite low and under 100 J/kg. With that in mind, I'll keep the slight chances for showers in the forecast. By sunrise Friday, it appears probable that the front will be near the I-20 corridor. I've kept Friday MinT temperatures close to the previous forecast north of the boundary with lows occurring right a sunrise. South of the front, low level moisture and a 10 to 15 MPH wind should result in another mild night across Central and parts of East TX. 24-Bain && .LONG TERM... /Friday through Wednesday/ A fairly strong cold front will be moving through North Texas by Friday morning after a very warm day Thursday. Temperatures will drop into the 40s behind the front and likely linger there all afternoon. There is a low chance for some showers on the leading edge of the boundary as it heads south, but most areas will remain precipitation free through the day. As we get into Friday night and early Saturday morning, a strong shortwave trough will swing through the Central Plains resulting in an increase in warm moist southerly flow atop the colder air. Strong forcing between 850-700mb, where most of the moisture is located, will result in rapid development of showers during the late overnight hours Friday into Saturday morning. Rain should start out across the northwest counties and spread across the region though the first half of Saturday. This will be a fast moving wave of moisture, so while most areas will pick up some rainfall, amounts will generally be 1/2" or less. Temperatures will rebound some on Saturday as the colder air is eroded, especially out west where rain ends first. Sunday's forecast is a little tricky as the guidance starts to spread with respect to the handling of the upstream trough over the western U.S. The GFS is a little less amplified and slower initially compared to the ECMWF. This results in slower lee side troughing and keeps North Texas in a cooler, weaker southeast flow near the surface on Sunday. The ECMWF quickly returns strong southerly flow to the region, sending a plume of warm air across North Texas, effectively capping the region and allowing temperatures to warm into the mid 70s. While the front that settles into the region over the weekend isn't terribly cold, persistent cloud cover and rain through Saturday may keep things cooler into Sunday than currently forecast by the ECMWF. We'll side with cooler GFS during this time which means that we'll keep temps in the 60s and hang on to some PoPs areawide as moisture will again surge northward late in the day. This strong warm advection will likely result in at least some scattered showers. There is some consensus with the overall trough amplifying through the early part of next week. This will send a cold front through the Plains on Monday. By Monday afternoon, we should become quite warm again with a dryline approaching our western counties and the front still well to the north. Latest guidance suggests that we will become unstable during the afternoon hours with around 1000 J/kg of surface based CAPE and a decent deep layer shear profile. There will be a lack of stronger forcing for ascent outside of low level warm advection, but we'll maintain some 30% PoPs through the afternoon. There may be some initial early day elevated showers that can become surface based during peak heating given the generally weak capping. If this occurs, then a strong to severe storm can't be ruled out. The cold front will race into North Texas on Tuesday with a continued chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms. Rain chances appear to continue through the end of the week as the upper pattern remains active across the western and central U.S. Dunn && .AVIATION... /Issued 1130 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2018/ /06Z TAFs/ Borderline IFR/MVFR ceilings tonight. VFR by Thursday afternoon. In a 50-kt low-level jet, a finger of IFR ceilings made an early charge up the I-35 and I-45 corridors during the evening. The westerly component within the cloud-bearing layer has made it difficult for these ceilings to reach the Fort Worth airports. The expanding blanket along the Balcones Escarpment will advect northeast, assuring ceilings at all TAF sites by 09Z (3am CST). Despite the stronger winds tonight, the early arrival of the cloud deck and the additional moist advection that will occur during the early morning hours will allow some reductions in visibility within Central Texas. This is less likely to occur within the Metroplex. Despite southwesterly winds on Thursday, considerable moisture upstream will delay the erosion of the cloud deck. All TAF sites should be VFR during the afternoon, but VFR ceilings may linger, particularly at Waco. Another round of stratus is expected Thursday night before a cold front arrives Friday morning; the MVFR ceilings and FROPA wind shift have been introduced into the extended portion of the DFW TAF with the 06Z package. 25 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 81 49 50 39 56 / 10 20 20 80 90 Waco 76 54 57 39 53 / 10 10 10 60 80 Paris 73 49 49 41 51 / 10 30 30 80 100 Denton 81 47 48 38 56 / 10 10 20 80 90 McKinney 77 48 49 38 54 / 10 20 20 80 100 Dallas 79 51 51 41 55 / 10 20 20 80 90 Terrell 74 52 52 44 53 / 10 20 20 80 100 Corsicana 75 55 55 43 52 / 10 20 20 70 90 Temple 74 60 61 41 53 / 10 10 10 60 70 Mineral Wells 84 48 48 38 59 / 5 10 10 80 80 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 24/91