756 FXUS62 KMHX 150903 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 403 AM EST Thu Feb 15 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain offshore through tonight. A cold front will move through late Friday, and then stall south of the region. An area of low pressure will move along the front and near Eastern NC Saturday night, followed by high pressure moving in Sunday and Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 3 AM Thu...Well above average temperatures are expected today as heights continue to rise with high pressure offshore. Highs will easily soar into the 70s, with the highest readings across Duplin, Onslow, and Jones counties. Closer to the cooler marine waters, highs will be limited to the 60s, and likely the low 60s along the nrn Outer Banks. Any isolated showers early this morning will be a distant memory today as the entire region is well into the warm sector. With the warmer and more humid air mass advecting in over the cool waters of the Pamlico/Albemarle sounds, some marine fog is possible across the nrn OBX zones later today. Breezy SW winds expected in the 10-20 mph range today, 15-25 mph on the OBX. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/... As of 3 AM Thu...The warm and humid conditions continue tonight as deep SW flow continues. It will continue breezy with winds 10-15 mph expected, 15-25 mph on the immediate coast. Continued dry conditions expected as high pres ridges in from the offshore waters. Perhaps a better chance of marine fog near the coast (Northern OBX and Crystal Coast), as warm and humid air advects over the cool waters. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 330 AM Thursday...Models remain in good agreement on very warm conditions Friday followed by cold front passage Friday night. The front is expected to stall south of the area Saturday, with an approaching stronger shortwave trough inducing low pressure development off the NC coast. Low intensifies off mid-Atlantic coast Sat night and merges with approaching frontal system, resulting in another cold front passage by Sunday morning. High pressure builds in again Sunday and Sunday night, and then extends over area from offshore late Monday through Wednesday. Friday and Friday night...Heights will continue to build with high pressure off the coast, and temperatures will rise well above average. Most models agree that precip will hold off until Friday afternoon, with the best chances over the northern portions of the CWA. Forecast soundings indicate lingering subsidence inversion 700-800 MB will limit convective development, supporting main threat of precip along or behind front, thus kept previous forecast thinking of chance POPs for NW half of area in afternoon increasing to good chance for most of areas during the evening. Decreasing POP trend overnight with slight chance north to chance south. Temperatures will warm into the upper 70s to low 80s inland, as WAA strengthens ahead of the approaching cold front. Near the cooler ocean and sounds it will remain in low 70s and upper 60s. Lows Friday night dropping back to low to mid 40s. Saturday through Wednesday...With surface cold front stalled to our south Saturday morning, an approaching upper trough will encourage surface low pressure development over the area, which will bring more widespread rain to the region mainly Saturday afternoon into evening, especially north of US 264. Guidance remains in decent agreement with likely PoPs for the northern half of the area Saturday afternoon and NE 1/3 during the evening. Low intensifies as it moves NE and merges with approaching frontal system Saturday night, resulting in another cold front passage across area by Sunday morning. High pressure builds in Sun and Sun night and then moves offshore Monday- Tuesday with some indication of weak coastal trough development as southerly flow redevelops. Some typical model differences on possible precip with coastal trough Monday-Monday night and then with possible warm sector activity Tue-Wed, and given ridging aloft have opted for just blanket slight chance POPs Mon-Wed. Saturday expected to be coldest day during extended period with cool air wedge conditions keeping highs mid 40s to lower 50s. Temps then moderating with ridging aloft and likely 15-25 degrees above normal for Tue-Wed with highs well into 70s inland. && .AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Short Term /through 06Z Friday/... As of 1 AM Thu...Generally VFR through the TAF period. Only a very small chance of some MVFR clouds, but confidence is low due to unfavorable climatological conditions. Winds will become gusty SW on Thur near 20 kt, and some LLWS is possible late Thu evening. Long Term /Friday through Monday/... As of 330 AM Thursday...VFR prevailing Friday morning followed by sub-VFR late Friday into Sat night due to cold front and then low pressure moving along coast. VFR returns Sunday with dry high pressure moving in. && .MARINE... Short Term /Through Tonight/... As of 3 AM Wed...Latest obs indicate SW winds 5-15 kt, though stronger winds continue to blow over the Gulf Stream in proximity to the almost 70 deg water temps. 41025 and buoy 17S Ocracoke continue 15-20kt. SCA conditions still expected for all the coastal waters and the Pamlico Sound. Winds increase through the day today into the 15-20 kt range, continuing to increase tonight into the 20-25 kt range with higher gusts as SW gradient increases with approach of cold front. Seas will increase to 4-6 ft through this morning, then build to 6-9 ft through the night tonight. The other concern is developing sea fog, as warm and humid air advects over the cooler shelf waters. The best bet for some dense fog possible will be later tonight, though may see some fog develop as early as this afternoon. Long Term /Friday through Monday/... As of 330 AM Thursday...Ongoing SW flow 15-25 KT will continue ahead of front Friday, then post-frontal cold air surge will result in period of N-NE 15-25 KT winds late Friday night into Saturday. Lows pressure moving along coast will produce veering and shifting winds Sat night, then another cold air surge of 15-20 KT expected Sunday. Winds will veer back to southerly as high pressure moves offshore Monday with speeds mainly around 10 KT. Seas peak 6-9 ft Friday and remain 4-6 ft with post-frontal surge Fri night into Sat morning. Heights subside to 3-5 ft late Saturday but build back to 4-6 ft briefly late Sat night. Seas subsiding to 3-4 ft Sunday and then mainly 2-3 ft Mon. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 3 PM EST Friday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 10 AM EST Saturday for AMZ156-158. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Saturday for AMZ150. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TL NEAR TERM...TL SHORT TERM...TL LONG TERM...JBM AVIATION...JBM/TL/SGK MARINE...JBM/TL/SGK