741 FXUS65 KVEF 150256 AAA AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 656 PM PST Wed Feb 14 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Showers and breezy, southwest winds will continue to affect the area today. Approaching low pressure will shift rain chances eastward over Lincoln and Mohave counties tonight through Thursday; exiting the area by late Thursday afternoon. Dry, north to northwest winds will follow behind for the remainder of the week. Little change in temperatures is expected through Friday before warming trend begins for the weekend. && .UPDATE...Area of light showers that developed over parts of central and eastern Clark County in the early afternoon shifted east- northeast into northern Mohave County. Light rain still being reported at the Colorado City Airport with a nearby automated gauge reporting nearly three tenths of an inch of rain in the past 3 hours. Around Las Vegas skies have mostly cleared out with satellite showing nearly clear skies over Esmeralda, Inyo, and western San Bernardino Counties. Locally gusty southwest winds will persist with us most of the night ahead of upstream shortwave trough approaching from the northwest. Anticipate gusty post-frontal northwest winds developing between Bishop and Tonopah after 10 PM this evening and spreading south down the Owen Valley, Death Valley N.P and Beatty between midnight and 5 am Thursday. Updated to remove POPs from all but far eastern Clark County, Lincoln and Mohave Counties the rest of the night. && .SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday. A closed low is now just off the Los Angeles coast as it weakens into an open wave, phasing with the incoming trough from the north over the next few hours. This has allowed some shower activity to develop along the I-15 corridor early this afternoon. Coverage of showers will continue to increase into the evening, mainly across Clark, Lincoln, and Mohave counties. Within this activity, the upper level jet orientation and approaching impulse could fuel an isolated lightning strike or two through sunset. Breezy,southwest winds are expected this afternoon, lingering the longest across the Mojave Desert overnight. The secondary trough will approach the area tonight into tomorrow fueling scattered activity overnight mainly in Mohave and Lincoln counties. The associated frontal boundary will enter our northern zones late tonight pushing southward throughout the morning, shifting winds to the north as it passes. These breezy, north winds will persist for much of the day Thursday. Rain chances and cloud cover should push eastward out the area late Thursday afternoon with dry, north to northwest flow filtering in behind for Thursday night and Friday. Little change in temperatures is expected through the end of the work week. .LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday. The weather continues to look fairly quiet Saturday as an area of high pressure briefly migrates overhead. There is increased confidence that a cold broad trough will begin diving into the region late Sunday through early next week as the ECMWF has been indicating. The latest GFS has come a little more in line with ECMWF solutions. The main result will be a considerable temperature drop after Sunday and generally unsettled conditions. However, moisture will be quite limited as the trough remains inland as it dives from British Columbia and brings a polar continental air mass over the region. The ECMWF continues to be colder than the GFS and NBM and the forecast grids are weighted toward the ECMWF...but not fully. It looks like a good bet that we will see lows dropping into the 30s over the Mojave Desert zones early next week with highs generally in the 50s. && .AVIATION...For McCarran...Any lower CIGs will likely stay anchored to the higher terrain tonight with mostly clear skies over the valley. However a weak cold front will likely bring another round for the potential of lower CIGs between 6-8 kft Thursday morning before drier air clears them out Thursday evening. With the cold front passing, a shift to a 10-15 knot north wind is likely to occur between 15z-17z with north winds lingering through early Friday. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...Scattered to isolated showers primarily south and east of line from KNXP to KCDC will lift north and east through the evening. Elsewhere, dry conditions are expected. Low scattered to broken clouds are expected in east of a line from KNXP to KELY; CIGs may drop from 5-8 kft to 4000' with vicinity showers. Southwest winds will develop late this afternoon across the region, with speeds between 10-20 knots and will remain through the rest of tonight before diminishing ahead of a weak cold front early Thursday. Breezy north winds will spread the region Thursday with speeds between 10-20 knots. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ Update...Pierce SHORT TERM...Guillet LONG TERM....Adair AVIATION...Boothe For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: http://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter