101 FXUS63 KICT 031748 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1148 AM CST Sat Feb 3 2018 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night) Issued at 302 AM CST Sat Feb 3 2018 Downslope effects will help boost daytime highs across the region with above normal temperatures prevailing today. Meanwhile current surface analysis shows arctic airmass over North Dakota/Minnesota, and latest satellite water vapor imagery shows a upper level wave near British Columbia. This airmass will begin to accelerate southward across the central plains for tonight and into Kansas early Sunday morning, as the upper level wave races southeast via the northwest flow regime aloft. The low levels will be quite dry, however decent isentropic lift in the 295-300K layer acting on a strong mid-level baroclinic zone could allow a narrow band of snow to reach the surface. The band would be orientated in a northwest to southeast manner and stretch from central Kansas towards east central Kansas. A light dusting to less than an inch of snow accumulation is possible with-in this band. The cold airmass will quickly shift east on Monday with warmer air returning to the region from increasing southerly winds. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 302 AM CST Sat Feb 3 2018 Models are still in fairly good agreement with next upper level system affecting Kansas on Tuesday and bringing much colder air to the region. The latest projections by models would support a winter mix of freezing rain, sleet, and snow given a strong 850mb baroclinic zone across southern Kansas. Accumulating precipitation looks favorable with the latest model trends. Otherwise cold below normal temperatures will continue for Wednesday with a brief warm up for Thursday. Although timing of next cold surge could arrive on Friday with much colder air invading Kansas yet again. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) Issued at 1146 AM CST Sat Feb 3 2018 VFR conditions will likely give way to transient MVFR ceilings late tonight/early on Sunday. Gusty winds this afternoon will diminish and veer as cold front approaches. Behind the front, expect mostly VFR ceilings with a lower transient band of MVFR ceilings running about 1-5 hours behind the wind shift. No precipitation is expected. Could see some flurries in the vicinity of KRSL/KSLN/ KGBD in the morning, but not expecting this to impact flight categories. Probabilities are too low to include in forecast at this time -Howerton && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 302 AM CST Sat Feb 3 2018 The combination of warmer dry air and breezy south winds will support very high grassland fire danger levels for much of the region this afternoon. Outdoor burning should be avoided. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Wichita-KICT 56 26 29 15 / 10 0 20 0 Hutchinson 58 24 26 14 / 10 0 30 0 Newton 55 24 25 13 / 10 0 30 0 ElDorado 54 26 28 14 / 10 0 30 0 Winfield-KWLD 55 28 32 15 / 10 0 10 0 Russell 62 22 23 14 / 10 10 40 0 Great Bend 63 23 25 14 / 10 10 30 0 Salina 59 23 24 14 / 10 10 30 0 McPherson 58 24 25 13 / 10 0 30 0 Coffeyville 53 30 35 16 / 10 0 20 0 Chanute 52 28 30 14 / 10 0 30 0 Iola 51 28 28 13 / 10 0 30 0 Parsons-KPPF 52 28 33 15 / 10 0 30 0 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CDJ LONG TERM...CDJ AVIATION...PJH FIRE WEATHER...CDJ