463 FXUS61 KBGM 022046 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 346 PM EST Fri Feb 2 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Very cold weather will be with us, for the first part of the weekend. Along with this, lake effect snow will continue tonight, over portions of north central New York. On Sunday, one clipper type storm system, will pass by to our north, while another one develops near the east coast. These systems will combine, to bring us a period of snow, mostly Sunday afternoon. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... 3 pm update... Lake snows continue south and southeast of Lake Ontario late this afternoon. Although we're not seeing the overall intensity like we did this morning, it will certainly remain persistent through at least this evening. Consensus of our well performing higher resolution guidance, suggests that a period of heavier snow is possible later this evening, as the main band swings northward through the advisory area. Overall, we foresee another 1-3" for most places through daybreak, with locally higher amounts possible in far northern Onondaga and western Oneida. Outside of the main lake effect areas, after a few early evening flurries/light snow showers, it will turn generally dry, under partly cloudy skies. It will remain brisk and very cold tonight, with air temperatures ranging from about 5 above to the lower teens, and wind chills generally zero to 10 below. Saturday, the main lake effect band will continue its northward migration along the eastern shore of Lake Ontario, with little, if any additional accumulations across our northern counties. We should see a fair amount of mid to high-level cloud debris, along with some filtered sunshine for many locales. Highs Saturday afternoon will range in the 20s, with winds not as gusty as we've seen so far today. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... 330 PM Update... Saturday night will be primarily dry until after midnight when surface low pressure in the northern Great Lakes brings warm air advection forcing to much of central New York. Will continue with chance pops over much of central New York and slight chance for northeast Pennsylvania and the southern Catskills. Overnight temperatures will be non-diurnal with overnight lows occurring during the evening followed by slow rises. Sunday through Sunday evening widespread light to moderate snow is expected over the entire region. As the above mentioned surface low tracks into eastern Canada moisture advection ahead of the front along with a southern stream low in the mid Atlantic will keep sufficient moisture and lift over the area for steady precipitation. High temperatures will range in the lower to middle 30s and with no warm layer aloft the precipitation will stay mostly snow. Some rain may mix in during the afternoon hours over the lower elevations of the Wyoming Valley in NE PA, and perhaps briefly for the lowest valleys in the NY Southern Tier and Finger Lakes region. A general accumulation of 1 to 4 inches is likely through the period for much of the area, with locally higher amounts over the higher terrain of the Poconos and Catskills (up to 6 inches above 1800 feet). One exception to this will be across northern and Central Oneida County, where a southerly flow will upslope into the Tug Hill...bringing enhanced snowfall here. Accumulations of 4 to 8 inches, with locally higher amounts are expected here through the period. An advisory may eventually be needed for this event...and amounts could potentially be close to warning amounts for northern Oneida County. Will hold off on any headlines at this time as it is mainly a 4th and 5th period event. Sunday evening the surface cold front swings through the region ending the steady snow. Sunday night with see scattered snow showers across the region, especially in Central NY... lows will drop into the teens and lower 20s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... On Monday some lake effect snow showers are possible southeast of Lake Ontario but surface ridging and dry airmass will limit activity. A period of light snow will move into the area late Monday night, as a weak disturbance moves along and north of the I-80 corridor. Weak warm air advection weakens as this system moves into our area...therefore, any light snow should be less than a half inch. The next system will impact the region Tuesday night through Wednesday. Models continue to show significant differences with the evolution of this storm. The system will track out of the southern plains then lift northeast into the Tennessee Valley and into the northeast. The ECMWF has a more westward track than the GFS therefore warmer with more rain potential. Followed national guidance which is a compromise solution. This would bring a period of snow to much of the area starting Tuesday night...some rain could mix in with the snow over Northeast PA prior to daybreak Wednesday. Depending on the track of the low, thermal gradients may be quite tight over our region on Wednesday. For now, the current forecast indicates precipitation changing to rain over the Wyoming Valley in NE PA, with a rain snow mix making its way as far north as the lower elevations of the NY Southern Tier....and all snow for the northern Susquehanna Region and points north. Again, the exact details of this system will likely shift and change as model guidances comes into better agreement on the low track and thermal profiles. With precipitation amounts between a half and three-quarters of an inch possible...locations that do stay all snow, could potentially see several inches or more. Behind this system, another shot of seasonably cold air moves into the area. This will bring more scattered lake effect snow showers. There are also indications that a weak clipper system could bring a higher chance of snow showers to much of the area next Friday and Friday night. Highs on Thursday and Friday will be in the 20s, with overnight lows in the upper single digits to teens. && .AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 18z update... KSYR will continue to see the lowest conditions in lake effect snow through this evening, with frequent below alternate minimums, occasionally challenging airport minimums. KRME will also see a period of sub-IFR conditions later tonight, as the main lake snow band shifts through this site. Otherwise, periodic MVFR-IFR restrictions in snow showers/flurries at KELM, KITH, and KBGM through early evening, should improve later tonight and Saturday. Meanwhile, at KAVP, VFR should continue. Gusty NW winds through a good chunk of tonight, will turn W-SW by Saturday. Outlook... Saturday...Mostly VFR. Sunday into Sunday night...Probable restrictions in snow, or mixed precipitation. Tuesday...Additional restrictions possible in light snow. Wednesday...Steadier snow or mixed precipitation possible, with additional restrictions. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for NYZ009-018- 036-037. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MLJ NEAR TERM...MLJ SHORT TERM...MJM/RRM LONG TERM...MJM/RRM AVIATION...MLJ