102 
FXUS63 KEAX 232018
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
218 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 217 PM| CST TUE JAN 23 2018

Wind speeds will continue to decrease as yesterday's surface low, 
currently over the eastern US/Canada, continues moving slowly east. 
Because of this slow progression, the low clouds have stuck 
around longer than originally anticipated and they should linger 
through the night thanks to another shortwave trough moving 
quickly through our area tonight. Tomorrow, an upper level ridge 
will settle into place over the central part of the country, while
at the surface, high pressure slides east, shifting our winds to 
the south. This will result in dry weather with warming 
temperatures for the next few days. Highs are forecast to range 
from the the mid 50s to low 60s Thursday and Friday. 

The warming trend ends Friday, though, as a low pressure system 
marches east. Rain chances return with this system, but there is 
some disagreement on who will see the rain. The GFS is the
quickest solution, resulting in only those south and east of the 
KC metro seeing rain. Whereas, the ECMWF and Canadian are slower,
providing rain chances for those along and east of I-35. The 
newest runs of the ECMWF and Canadians are trending more toward 
the GFS this afternoon, but right now it seems either way far 
northwest MO will likely not see any rain from this weekends 
system. Light snow is possible on the back side of this system 
early Saturday morning as temperatures cool below freezing. The 
snow will be short-lived though as temperatures will warm back 
above freezing quickly late Saturday morning. No accumulation is 
expected at this time. The precipitation should move out Saturday 
afternoon, leaving the remainder of the weekend dry with 
temperatures in the 40s.


&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1130 AM CST TUE JAN 23 2018

It looks like we are going to hang on to the clouds longer than 
originally anticipated. The cloud deck is starting to break up on 
satellite though, which should result in predominately VFR 
ceilings with some areas of embedded MVFR ceilings. The MVFR 
ceilings should be reinforced though later this afternoon as a 
shortwave trough moves overhead. As this feature moves east, we 
should return to VFR conditions around 04Z along the MO/KS border,
with areas east seeing VFR conditions closer to midnight. Some 
models are hinting at patchy fog development once the skies clear,
but there is not enough confidence right now to include it in the
TAFs.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Grana
Aviation...Grana