549 FXUS64 KBMX 211835 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1235 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018 .UPDATE... Morning Update. && .SYNOPSIS... GOES-R mid-level water vapor imagery agrees with global model short-range mid level depictions of a shortwave ridge that extended from central Tennessee south into the northern Gulf of Mexico. The relatively dry airmass aloft agreed with the morning sounding data and the vertical mixing with solar insolation was helping to keep what cloud cover is present across our northwest counties generally scattered in nature. Surface high pressure was earlier analyzed near the Alabama/Georgia state line south of Auburn. Surface winds have been responding with southeast winds across our eastern and southern counties, becoming more southerly across our western counties. 21.12z BMX morning sounding depicted a more moist low-level profile beneath a notable subsidence inversion located around 685mb. Low level winds were from the southwest followed by a more zonal flow generally above 850 mb followed by a northwest flow generally above 500 mb. Winds through the column were generally less than 40 kts through 300mb. 05 && .SHORT TERM... Today and tonight. Dry air aloft will continue to support fair skies this afternoon and evening. Higher heights due to shortwave ridging along with warm air advection from south and southeast winds will support highs around 70 this afternoon across much of our southern and western counties. Dry conditions will prevail as surface high pressure continues to slide further east into south Georgia this evening. An upper level low over southeast Colorado and northeast New Mexico will deepen gradually as it moves northeast into Kansas by Monday morning. A surface low pressure area will slowly deepen as it moves east out of northwest Texas and into Oklahoma tonight before lifting northeast into eastern Kansas and northern Missouri by early Monday morning. The associated cold front will sweep eastward through much of Texas by 12z Monday morning. Ahead of the cold front and on west side of departing surface high pressure, expect a gradual increase in clouds from west to east tonight through sunrise on Monday. Surface winds will remain out of the south to southeast and will persist overnight, gradually increasing and becoming breezy Monday morning as the surface pressure gradient tightens due to the approaching front and high pressure to the east of the state. Continued to deviate from guidance with warmer temperatures today than most model solutions are providing and conversely went a few degrees colder tonight especially across the east and northeast counties due to generally drier soil conditions than normal. 05 .LONG TERM... Monday through Sunday. Height falls are expected on Monday as a strong Plains trough moves eastward, and moisture return should be sufficient for a band of showers and maybe some thunder along a cold front. Instability continues to appear limited due to dewpoints only reaching the upper 50s to around 60F. Will continue to monitor trends, but currently there is not enough support to mention a threat for severe storms in the HWO. High pressure and dry weather will return for Tuesday through Friday with temperatures near normal. A large but progressive trough will emerge across the Plains late in the week, and rain chances should increase for Friday night through Sunday as this system approaches. 87/Grantham && .AVIATION... 18Z TAF Discussion. VFR conditions are expected through the first 18 hours of the TAF period, with MVFR cigs moving in between 12-15Z tomorrow morning. Mainly clear skies are expected today with cirrus overspreading the area overnight. Low-level moisture will increase ahead of a cold front tomorrow morning resulting in an MVFR stratus deck. Will monitor for possible IFR cigs, but will only mention MVFR at this time due to the best moisture being concentrated above 1k ft and the post-sunrise timing of onset. Precipitation associated with the cold front will not arrive until after this TAF cycle. Winds will be southerly around 5-8kts, with some 15-20 kt wind gusts developing tomorrow morning. 32/Davis && .FIRE WEATHER... Moisture and southerly flow will continue to increase today and on Monday. Rain is likely along a cold front Monday afternoon and evening. There are no fire weather concerns. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 44 64 40 53 29 / 10 80 50 0 0 Anniston 46 66 40 55 29 / 10 80 70 0 0 Birmingham 48 66 40 55 31 / 10 80 20 0 0 Tuscaloosa 49 67 39 57 32 / 10 80 10 0 0 Calera 48 66 40 56 32 / 10 80 30 0 0 Auburn 47 66 43 58 33 / 10 50 70 0 0 Montgomery 46 69 43 59 32 / 10 80 50 0 0 Troy 47 70 45 59 33 / 10 60 60 0 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/... None. && $$