277 FXUS62 KMHX 211720 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1220 PM EST Sun Jan 21 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will slide offshore tonight and Monday. A cold front will move through Tuesday. High pressure will build in from the northwest late next week then pass offshore next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 1210 PM Sunday...Fcst on track with mainly sunny skies except for some high clouds skirting the imd central and srn cst. Temps already lower 60s most inland spots and shld rise to mid/upr 60s this aftn with 50s beaches. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/... As of 350 AM Sunday...With axis of surface ridge offshore, the low level flow will become more southerly tonight. Temperatures will moderate a few degrees with lows by Monday morning in the upper 30s over most areas, with lower 40s Outer Banks. Winds will remain light under clear skies except for some occasional cirrus. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 4 AM Sunday...Mild weather is expected through the extended period. A cold front will bring a threat of showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorms on Tuesday. Otherwise dry conditions are expected for the extended period. Monday and Monday night...High pressure weakens across the area as an upper low lifts from the central plains toward the Great Lakes while the attendant cold front pushes from the Miss River Valley early Monday to the Appalachians by late Monday night. Increasing southerly flow brings low level WAA and expect increasing stcu across the region through the period. Some models, ECMWF and NAM especially, suggest enough moisture to bring a few light showers to the region, mainly southern section Monday afternoon, spreading across most of the region Monday night and have slight chance to low end chance PoPs. Temps will be very mild with highs Monday in the mid 60s inland, perhaps upper 60s southern sections, and around 60 along the coast. Temps Monday night remain mild as southerly flow continues to increase and expect lows in the low to mid 50s. Tuesday...A robust frontal system approaches the region Tuesday and is progged to push across the region Tuesday afternoon. Models have trended slightly slower with the progression of the front over the past several runs but the 00z/21 models are in generally good agreement with the timing. It will be a high shear/low CAPE scenario with models indicating 0-6km bulk shear up to around 70kt but very little CAPE per the GFS/ECMWF while the NAM has a little higher CAPE values to around 500 J/kg. Cannot rule out an isolated storm bringing strong wind gusts but with better forcing for ascent displaced to the north expect the overall severe threat to be minimal at this time. Continued very mild with highs in the upper 60s to around 70 inland but cooler water temps will hold temps in the low to mid 60s along the coast. Tuesday night through Saturday..Broad upper troughing continues across the eastern CONUS with high pressure across the southern southern plains Wednesday building into the region through the end of the work week. Upper ridging builds in Friday into Saturday with high pressure sliding offshore by Saturday with return flow bringing milder conditions to the region. Expect dry conditions with mainly clear skies much of the period. Temps will be near climatology with highs in the low/mid 50s and lows in the low/mid 30s, warming to around 60 Saturday. Coastal sections will be cooler with highs mainly in the mid/upper 40s and lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s. && .AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Short Term /through Monday/... As of 1210 PM Sunday...Mainly VFR thru period however there is a threat for some fog late tonight. High pres will drift slowly E tonight but cont to influence the region with mclr skies. Dewpts have risen signif past 24 hrs and expect overnight temps to drop to dewpts late. With calm winds could se some patchy fog develop after 06Z. Given guidance not indicating much will just show high end MVFR for now. Fog that develops will burn off Mon morn with VFR thru mid aftn. Late Mon could see some MVFR cigs start to spread N over srn tier as moisture increases on backside of high pres. Long Term /Monday Night through Thursday/... As of 430 AM Sunday...Periods of MVFR cigs and an isolated shower Monday night. A strong frontal system pushes across the region Tuesday with a period of sub-VFR conditions and gusty southerly winds expected across rtes. Pred-VFR expected Tuesday night through Thursday as high pressure builds toward the region. && .MARINE... Short Term /Today and Tonight/... As of 1210 PM Sunday...Winds cont to diminish and expect light winds and 1 to 3 foot seas rest of the day with high pres over the region. Prev disc...Minimal changes needed to the current marine forecast. Good boating conditions for late January expected today and tonight as the axis of the high pressure ridge moves from west to east across our region. Winds will be westerly at 5-15 knots, although some gusts to 20 knots are possible early this morning off the central waters. By this afternoon and tonight, expect winds to gradually become more E/SE at 5-10 knots. Seas will be around 2 feet today, except 3-5 feet over the central waters early today. Seas will be 2-3 feet in all areas for tonight. Long Term /Monday through Thursday/... As of 430 AM Sunday...Good boating conditions continue Monday with winds around 10 kt or less, gradually trending to S/SE through the day and seas around 1-2 ft. Sly flow increases Monday night and Tuesday ahead of strong frontal system and expect SSW winds increasing to around 20-30 kt with gale force gusts possible by Tuesday morning and seas peaking around 6-11 ft Tuesday afternoon. The front pushes across the waters late Tuesday with winds becoming W/NW around 10-20 kt Tuesday night and early Wednesday with seas subsiding to 3-5 ft Wednesday morning. Winds diminish 5-15 kt Wednesday afternoon but a mid level disturbance moves across the region Wednesday night that will serve to increase wind back to 10-20 kt into Thursday morning before becoming N around 5-15 kt Thursday afternoon. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CTC NEAR TERM...RF SHORT TERM...CTC LONG TERM...SK AVIATION...RF/SK MARINE...RF/CTC/SK