595 FXUS61 KBGM 190851 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 351 AM EST Fri Jan 19 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A mainly dry period is forecast through the weekend along with moderating temperatures. This weekend, high temperatures will be mostly in the lower to middle 40s. This is about 10 to 15 degrees above average for this time of year. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... 130 AM Update.. Wide range of temperatures and sky conditions attm. To the southeast 5 to 15 with light to calm winds and clear skies. In the rest some wind helping to mix the low levels so 15 to 25 degrees. Winds will increase this morning as a short wave moves through with some clouds. This will bring up temperatures before sunrise. High temperatures in the low and mid 30s with warm air advection in the low levels. Flow goes to 280 briefly this morning into early afternoon bringing some flurries to Syracuse and Utica, and some light snow showers to the Tug. Flow shifts back to the WSW this afternoon lifting the lake moisture back north of Oneida County. Again moisture is shallow, lift is weak, and the air not cold enough for much more than an inch of snow today. Further south it will remain dry with mostly mid clouds. As usual more clouds to the north and less to the south. Low temperatures tonight in the 20s with continued waa. Saturday under a flat upper level ridge. A weak short wave moves through upstate NY with the low level shifting to be off Lake Ontario into the Tug Hill Plateau again. Some chance of more light snow showers and flurries. Highs here in the mid and upper 30s. Like today rest of area will remain dry and partly to mostly sunny. Temperatures still warmer with highs in the low and mid 40s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... 330 am update... A quasi-zonal flow aloft with weak ridging at the surface will keep weather conditions relatively quiet Saturday night and most of the day Sunday. Heights aloft do not appear to be as high as previously thought, which also translates to temperatures not as warm. A weak e-w oriented warm front extending across the srn Great Lakes from a developing low pressure in the central CONUS will help focus moisture and weak lift across the region with temperatures hovering around the freezing mark. May see very light freezing drizzle Sunday morning...changing to drizzle during the daylight hours...and then potentially back to freezing drizzle Sunday evening, mainly in the Mohawk Valley and the Catskills. The low pressure system moves in from the west late Monday night along with a better push of warmer air as ridging out ahead of the system amplifies. This will act to change the precip over to all rain during the day Monday. Rainfall amounts are challenging at this point, but the generally consensus is around a quarter to three quarters of an inch...up to as much as 1 inch through Monday night. Temperatures Sunday will start out in the 20s and lower 30s...but warm into the mid and upper 30s. Temps drop back into the 20s and lower 30s Sunday night and warm up into the 40s on Monday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... 340 am update... A deep cutoff upper low will be rolling through the srn Great Lakes and Ohio valley region Monday night and Tuesday with generally widespread rain expected Monday night and Tue morning as much of the region will remain situated in the warm sector during this time. Will begin to see some snow mix in with the rain Tuesday afternoon as the cold front pushes through some time during the afternoon/early evening hours. The precipitation is expected to become all snow fairly quickly Tuesday night with winds increasing out of the w/nw behind the front. Should see at least a brief period of significant lake effect snow downwind/se of Lake Ontario Tue night into Wednesday with weak low level shear...a relatively deep mixed layer and modest CAA with 850mb temps around -9 to -13 deg C. High pressure begins to move in on Thursday with snow showers tapering off and weather conditions becoming generally quiet. Temperatures behind the front will remain on the cool side, but relatively seasonal. Highs in the upper 20s and lower 30s and lows in the teens and lower 20s. && .AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 1230 AM update... Mid and high clouds are across CNY now will move out by 09z. More mid clouds will return during the day into tonight, but VFR is expected to continue in south central NY and AVP through tonight. At RME fuel alternate MVFR cigs are expected between 12 and 22Z as the low level flow shifts to WNW again. This could also move into SYR with high end MVFR cigs 14 to 19Z. Otherwise a mid deck is most likely. Light and variable winds early this morning becoming SW or W at 5 to 10 kts during the day then light SW tonight. Outlook... late tonight through Sunday night...Primarily VFR. Monday through Tuesday...Restrictions likely in primarily light rain. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TAC NEAR TERM...TAC SHORT TERM...BJT LONG TERM...BJT AVIATION...TAC