442 FXUS63 KICT 151947 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 147 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 147 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018 Main challenge is wind chills in the frigid airmass the next couple of nights, then temperature moderation/warming over residual snow cover Wednesday into Thursday. Strong 1054mb surface high pressure centered over the northern high Plains will drop south-southeast across mid-America tonight/Tuesday with a weaker 1044mb high center emerging over eastern Kansas by Tuesday evening. While a general clearing trend is expected this evening/tonight, some stratocu may settle south into parts of far eastern Kansas as the elongated upper trof drops south into the Lower Missouri Valley. Despite this in combo with brisk north winds which should keep the low level airmass mixed a bit, temperatures are still likely to plummet near or slightly below zero in many areas where snow cover exists. The current Wind Chill Advisory looks reasonable with coldest readings likely between midnight to around sunrise. Near record low possible Tuesday at Russell (-4F 1977) and record cool high at Salina (13F in 1982). Tuesday night may end up being the coldest night for locations along/east of the Turnpike with clear skies and light winds in proximity to the surface ridge. A warming trend looks to commence on Wednesday in the modified return southerly low level flow. However after a very cold start, even a larger diurnal recovery will still see many areas struggle to climb near or just above freezing. Kansas will be situated in rather benign northwest flow aloft into Thursday, far removed from a northern stream trof moving across the Upper Midwest and weaker southern trof moving over south Texas. While residual snow cover may impact temperatures a few degrees, expect maxs to climb several degrees above mid-January climo across central Kansas. Darmofal .LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday) Issued at 147 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018 After an unseasonably mild start to the weekend, an upper trof is progged to track eastward from the Southwest CONUS/southern Rockies into the central/southern Plains by Sunday. While still many days away, this looks to bring the next chance for significant precip and perhaps some impactful Winter weather to at least parts of the area. Stay tuned. KED && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) Issued at 1129 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2018 IFR and MVFR conditions will be clearing from the region today. RSL and SLN have already cleared from lower ceilings and visibilities. This clearing trend will continue through the day and hold through the night with VFR conditions. The main issue will be winds over most of the region. Wind gusts up to 35 mph are possible in most areas but luckily cross winds should not be problems for most terminals. This wind will die down some during the overnight hours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Wichita-KICT 1 15 0 32 / 0 0 0 0 Hutchinson -1 14 0 32 / 0 0 0 0 Newton -1 13 -1 30 / 0 0 0 0 ElDorado 0 14 -1 30 / 0 0 0 0 Winfield-KWLD 2 16 1 32 / 0 0 0 0 Russell -3 15 0 35 / 0 0 0 0 Great Bend -2 15 0 36 / 0 0 0 0 Salina -3 14 -1 32 / 0 0 0 0 McPherson -3 13 -2 32 / 0 0 0 0 Coffeyville 2 15 1 29 / 0 0 0 0 Chanute 0 13 -1 28 / 0 0 0 0 Iola -2 12 -1 27 / 0 0 0 0 Parsons-KPPF 1 14 0 28 / 0 0 0 0 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Chill Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon CST Tuesday for KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100. && $$ SHORT TERM...KED LONG TERM...KED AVIATION...ELM