232 FXUS64 KLIX 120941 AFDLIX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service New Orleans LA 341 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2017 .DISCUSSION... An amplifying shortwave trough will dive south across the southeastern United States today. A strong cold front will accompany this feature. It is currently moving southeast across northern Louisiana and could reach northwestern zones of the CWA by daybreak. Continental airmass will knock temps back down about 10 degrees or so for a couple days. Generally speaking, lows will be in the 30s and highs in the 50s. One night of near freezing mins is expected Wednesday morning. This is for locations along and north of a Pascagoula to Slidell to Baton Rouge line. There won't be any rain with this boundary as there will not be any chance for moisture to return before it moves through. Temperatures will rebound slightly Thursday before yet another cold front moves through Thurs night/Fri morning. A slightly better chance of rain will be possible with this front as the sub-tropical jet carries Pacific moisture across Mexico to the northern Gulf coast. However, it appears the timing of this moisture will be such that showers don't develop along the front until it reaches the coast. So, have kept pops to locations south of a Houma to Lafitte line. This is a southward shift of rain chances, which is what model solutions have been trending towards. This last trough will finally be the one that shifts east to the Atlantic, allowing a ridge to develop over the CWA. Temperatures will respond over the end of the week and weekend by rising into the upper 60s to near 70. Moisture will begin to rise as surface high pressure shifts east and southerly flow develops. The next appreciable chance of rain will develop Sunday/Monday as a trough moves into the midsection of the country then. MEFFER && .AVIATION... Cold front moving through this morning causing winds to become NW at 10kt while those sites on the lee side of lakes will be closer to 20kt. VFR conditions through taf cycle. && .MARINE... Winds will rise to 20 to 25kt today as a cold front moves through this morning. Winds will again lower before responding once again to another cold front that should move through Thursday night into Friday morning. High pressure will quickly move east after the Friday front causing winds to become onshore by Saturday and Sunday. Another cold front will move through Sunday night into Monday. Each of these fronts will bring with them at least short durations of flag conditions whether that be caution or SCA conditions. && .DECISION SUPPORT... DSS code: Blue. Deployed: None. Activation: None. Activities: Small craft advisories. Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend Green = No weather impacts that require action. Blue = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high visibility event. Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or advisory issuances; radar support. Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes. Red = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 55 31 58 38 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 59 32 60 39 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 60 31 59 39 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 59 38 61 45 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 58 34 58 42 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 59 30 58 39 / 0 0 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ536-538-550-552- 555-557-570-572-575-577. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ538-550-552-555- 557-570-572-575-577. && $$