475 FXUS64 KTSA 032340 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 540 PM CST Sun Dec 3 2017 .AVIATION... CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG. MVFR cigs expected to develop areawide after 06Z and persist into Monday ahead of an approaching cold front. Front should be near KBVO/KTUL/KRVS around 22Z-00Z...with some scattered storms possible ahead of the boundary into far eastern OK and western AR. South winds ahead of the front will be gusty. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 249 PM CST Sun Dec 3 2017/ DISCUSSION... Main forecast concerns are shower and thunderstorm potential associated with tomorrow's cold frontal passage, as well as a small window for enhanced fire weather concern behind the front. Low level moisture has steadily increased over the past 24 hours, with surface dew points in the mid and upper 50s across most of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. A pool of low to mid 60s dew points sits not all that far south of the Red River and should continue to move northward overnight and into tomorrow as southerly flow strengthens. A large region of low clouds is closely associated with the 60-plus dew point observations, and the expectation is that low cloudiness will increase accordingly across the region over the next 12 to 18 hours. Patchy drizzle may also develop after midnight, especially across eastern Oklahoma. Scattered showers could develop as early as tomorrow morning, but more likely during the afternoon hours, especially across far northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, as a coupled jet structure positions itself overhead and the front begins to move into the area. Some modest instability develops during the mid to late afternoon immediately ahead of the front, leading to isolated to scattered thunderstorm potential during the afternoon with increased coverage in far southeast Oklahoma and Arkansas during the evening. A small window for isolated severe weather will exist, primarily across far southeast Oklahoma and into western Arkansas during the evening hours, with marginally severe wind gusts being the main concern. As far as fire weather concerns go, areas west of Highway 75 are most at risk, as highs reach well above normal levels once again and low level moisture drops off right behind the front. Behind the front for the rest of the work week, dry northwest flow aloft should prevail with slight warmups followed by reinforcing shots of cold air. Temperatures will remain near to below normal from Tuesday through next weekend. Flurries or light snow will likely be in the offing for parts of far northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas Thursday night and into Friday as a stronger upper level disturbance drops through that portion of the forecast area. It does not look like accumulating snow at this point, and it is likely that a mention of flurries will be needed in the future. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 63 75 32 51 / 10 40 10 0 FSM 58 71 42 51 / 10 70 80 0 MLC 63 75 37 49 / 10 50 30 0 BVO 61 75 28 53 / 10 30 10 0 FYV 59 66 33 47 / 10 80 70 0 BYV 58 67 34 46 / 10 70 80 0 MKO 61 72 36 48 / 10 60 30 0 MIO 61 70 30 49 / 10 80 30 0 F10 62 75 36 49 / 10 50 20 0 HHW 62 74 42 53 / 20 40 80 10 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ AVIATION.....18