909 FXUS64 KHGX 031845 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1245 PM CST Sun Dec 3 2017 .AVIATION... A near-stationary warm frontal boundary draped along the upper Texas coastline...along with a passing southwestern shortwave disturbance...will make for a day of mainly MVFR to occasional IFR ceilings. Periods of light rain or drizzle and locally dense fog closer to the coast through the remainder of the afternoon. Ceilings lower tonight with less of a fog (than a low stratus) element. A combination of both low stratus and fog across the maritime with sea fog being the main player this TAF period. Showery weather continues through the early Monday morning hours...but widely scattered and light precipitation that should not significantly impact any local terminal's air space. A tighter onshore pressure gradient tomorrow will strengthen lower level winds but still expecting a very slow improvement (slow- lifting MVFR stratus) into the early Monday afternoon hours. 31 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 928 AM CST Sun Dec 3 2017/ DISCUSSION... At 800 AM, a weak warm front extended from about Cameron LA to near Galveston and then southwest toward Palacios. Scattered showers were beginning to develop ahead of this feature. At 850 mb, high pressure was located over the western Gulf and the flow on the back side of this feature was bringing deeper moisture into SE TX. The 12z CRP soundings is already showing an increase in moisture with PW values at 1.35 inches. A weak 850 mb trough was noted across eastern New mexico as well. At 300 mb, a weak high was noted over Deep South Texas with weak diffluence noted over eastern Texas. A short wave trough was also noted over western Texas. Water vapor imagery also shows this short wave approaching SE TX. The combination of the warm front and warm air advection, the short wave and favorable upper level winds should yield higher rain chances today and will bump PoPs to high end end chance/likely for much of SE TX. The latest short term guidance is bullish with PoPs today as well. Will trim Max temperatures a degree or two due to anticipated precip and cloud cover. Water temps over the shelf waters are 66 degrees and the dew point at Galveston is 68 degrees. Forecasting sea fog is always a tough call, but mariners should be aware that conds are becoming increasingly favorable for sea fog. 43 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 64 81 64 66 44 / 20 50 70 40 20 Houston (IAH) 66 81 69 74 48 / 30 50 60 70 40 Galveston (GLS) 69 78 70 75 52 / 20 40 50 70 60 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST Monday for the following zones: Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Galveston Bay. && $$ Discussion...43 Aviation/Marine...31