656 
FXUS65 KVEF 292221
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
221 PM PST Wed Nov 29 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Considerable high clouds over the region today will 
gradually shift southeast on Thursday and Friday. Temperatures will 
continue to be several degrees above normal through the weekend 
while some north breezes remain within the lower Colorado River 
Valley. The passage of a cold front will usher in cooler 
temperatures early next week.
&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Saturday Night

Weather looks to be quiet through the end of the week. Zonal flow 
aloft will result in dry weather with high clouds leading to
mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies, but no impactful weather is 
expected. A upper level trough will pass to our south Thursday and 
Friday, however models continue agree that the system will swing 
through Baja California and keep the better forcing far south the 
forecast area. The only noticable weather change from this system 
may be increasing clouds over southern San Bernardino County into 
the Colorado River Valley Thursday into Thursday night. 

Temperatures will not change much from day to day starting on 
Thursday as highs warm up to slightly above normal, and then remain 
there for a few days.. In general the weather will be pleasant and 
mild through the weekend. 
&&

.LONG TERM...Sunday through Tuesday

What once appeared as a promising period of unsettled weather and 
precip potential, is now looking increasingly uneventful.  Tonight's 
00z ECMWF model run is considerably weaker than previous runs, but 
continues the trend of dry and milder conditions it's been moving 
towards since yesterday. Meanwhile, the GFS splits the trough and 
forms a rex block pattern over the west coast, but leaves our 
forecast area dry.  Ensembles suggest the potential for some weak 
troughing somewhere over the southwest next week in response to a 
high amplitude ridge building over the West Coast,  but it would 
likely be too weak and moisture starved to amount to much for our 
region. 

As such, Ive removed PoPs through the extended period and reduced 
cloud cover. Also raised temperatures closer to seasonal normals, 
though they may need to be bumped higher in future updates. 
&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Winds around 6 knots or less favoring 
typical diurnal patterns can be expected through Thursday with 
only few- sct high clouds.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast 
California...Light winds favoring diurnal patterns can be expected 
cross most of the region with only sct-bkn cirrus clouds over the 
Mojave Desert Region. Localized north winds gusting around 20 knots 
will be confined near KIFP again Thursday morning through early 
afternoon.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Allen
LONG TERM....Outler

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