451 
FXUS63 KILX 291158
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
558 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2017

Cold front will drop into the Ohio River Valley this morning, 
allowing a cooler airmass to settle into central Illinois. Skies
will initially be mostly sunny along/north of I-72: however,
clouds will increase this afternoon as an upper-level disturbance
approaches from the southwest. High temperatures will top out in
the lower to middle 50s. A northern-stream wave will push a cold
front into Illinois tonight, bringing clouds and perhaps a few
light showers. Moisture profiles remain shallow, but convergence
along the boundary will be strong enough to trigger scattered
showers...particulary across the E/SE KILX CWA. Have included
slight chance PoPs west of the Illinois River after
midnight...increasing to high chance along/east of I-57. 
Overnight lows will range from the middle 30s far northwest around
Galesburg...to the lower 40s elsewhere. 

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2017

Showers will linger across east-central and southeast Illinois
into Thursday morning before quickly pushing into Indiana by
midday. Once the front departs, an extended period of mild and dry
weather will be on tap from Thursday afternoon through Sunday
before the next system comes into the picture by early next week.
00z Nov 29 models continue to struggle with the pattern, with both
the GFS and ECMWF suggesting a progressive upper wave tracking
across the Plains into the Midwest. Meanwhile, the GEM appears to
be the odd model out with its more amplified solution showing a
closed low forming over the Desert Southwest on Tuesday. Given
poor run-to-run consistency from all models, forecast confidence
remains poor beyond Sunday. However, have rejected the slower GEM
in favor of the faster GFS/ECMWF consensus. As a result, have
carried chance PoPs for rain showers Monday into Tuesday, followed
by colder/drier conditions Tuesday night into Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 558 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2017

VFR conditions will prevail through the entire 12z TAF period. A
band of mid-level cloudiness associated with a frontal boundary
across southern Illinois has dropped just south of the terminals
early this morning...but will gradually work its way back
northward as the day progresses. Based on NAM 850-700mb layer RH 
profiles, have introduced 7000ft ceilings at KSPI/KDEC by
19z...then further north to the I-74 sites by 21z. As a cold front
pushes into the region, a few light showers will develop tonight.
Have added VCSH after the 07-10z time frame accordingly.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Barnes