304 FXUS63 KFSD 170923 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 323 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2017 .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight) Issued at 323 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2017 Clouds will continue to increase across the area this morning, in the warm air advection regime and low level moisture advection lifting northward across the central Plains. The positively tilted shortwave trough emerging from the Rockies overnight will slowly swing through the region today and tonight. Meanwhile, surface boundary noses will nose into south central SD around daybreak today and track across the forecast area through the afternoon. This will allow the breezy southerly winds to diminish, then swing around to the north behind the front. Models suggest that the mid level front trailing just behind the surface boundary will bring a chance of light rainfall mainly along and north of I-90, so have added isolated to scattered pops late morning and this afternoon. High temperatures this afternoon will reach the mid 40s to mid 50s, warmest in northwest Iowa. Trough starts swinging into the forecast area Friday night, bringing enough weak forcing to produce another shot at light precipitation Friday evening and overnight. Models focusing the better forcing across the Missouri Valley into northwest Iowa, with the better organizing passing to our south. Expect a chance of light rainfall to move into south central SD and the Missouri Valley in the evening, spreading into far southeast SD, northwest Iowa and southwest MN in the early morning hours. The highway 14 corridor should see very little if any precipitation. Cooler air will begin advecting into the region overnight, allowing temperatures to drop into the 20s. Could certainly see the light rain briefly mix with snow or change over to snow before the precipitation ends. However, right now it looks like the bulk of the precipitation will have ended before the colder temperatures arrive. Not expecting any significant snow accumulation. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 323 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2017 Relatively quiet weather with a roller-coaster in temperatures is the main story on the extended. Skies will begin to clear out from the northwest to southeast, resulting in a mostly sunny Saturday for the region. Northwesterly winds will keep the area dry and cooler than previous days with highs only reaching the 30s to around 40 along the Missouri River. With breezy winds increasing in the afternoon, wind chill values could drop in the lower 20s. Warmer temperatures return Sunday into Monday night as winds turn to the south/southwest with the arrival of a dry frontal boundary. This pattern will keep temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Highs will be ranging from the mid 40s to mid 50s. Models bring series of fast-moving shortwaves, clipper-like systems across the region for the remainder of the extended. Cold northwesterly air will push moisture out of the area; therefore not much in terms of precipitation is anticipated. The first of the systems brings a boundary across the region Monday night into Tuesday impacting only temperatures over the area. The roller- coaster goes down on Tuesday with strong cold air advection filtering from the northwest, bringing highs only in the 30s. The main impact across the area will be in temperatures with the transition between systems and wind flow pattern. This will result in warmer than normal temperatures for the end of the period. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) Issued at 1049 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2017 Low lying stratus across eastern Kansas is expected to work north impacting areas along and east of I-29 towards 12Z. Areas of fog could also develop, reducing visibilities especially in the higher elevation areas along the Buffalo Ridge. Cold front will work through the area on Friday, but stratus will be stubborn to clear especially towards central Minnesota and Iowa. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...05 AVIATION...BT