947 FXUS61 KRLX 052345 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 645 PM EST Sun Nov 5 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Warm evening and wet overnight, heavy in southeast Ohio, ahead of a cold front crossing Monday. Low pressure south of the area Tuesday. Much cooler per high pressure last half of work week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 600 PM Monday... Minor changes to sky grids made. Rest of forecast remain representative. As of 225 PM Monday... Timing continues trending faster with a cold front, already pushing through MI, IN and IL early this afternoon. This brings the warm, moist axis ahead of the front farther east tonight, with a grand or more J/Kg of CAPE, deep layer bulk shear into the 40s, 0-1 km bulk shear over 30, and pw values up to 1.5 in, featured in the axis. This parameters, especially the CAPE, still drop off as the axis enter the forecast area overnight tonight. However, some instability and high pw values could reach into the northwest fringes of the forecast area then. Strong thunderstorms may get as far east as the Ohio River, especially if a line can organize and push out ahead of the front. Heavy downpours would also be a threat, especially far northwest portions of the forecast area, where models concur the maximum QPF axis gets close enough to send overnight amounts up over two inches. A flash flood watch was issued earlier in coordination with neighboring offices. Thanks PBZ and ILN for the coordination. The watch remains in effect for tonight, 6 PM until 6 AM Monday morning. Gusty winds ahead of the front outside precipitation will persist through tonight. The front will push the showers eastward during the day Monday, but a low overcast is likely to persist in the low level moisture, beneath the strengthening frontal inversion. Used a MOS, short and near term blend for non diurnal temperatures and dew points, with a warm evening, and then temperatures falling behind the front late overnight tonight and Monday. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 225 PM Sunday... Models are in good agreement with cold front meandering south of the area Monday night. As waves ride along the front, additional showers will be possible into Tuesday evening. With high temperatures in the 50s, a chilly and damp day is in store. Scattered showers will taper off from west to east overnight Tuesday and Wednesday, as high pressure pushes moisture out of the region. However, the cooler air mass spells below normal temperatures, with highs only in the 50s, with overnight lows in the 30s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 225 PM Sunday... Unsettled weather continues or returns during this time. Models are in some disagreement as to what extent the wave will make its impacts felt, as it passes south of the area Thursday. As of now, the best chance for rain Thursday is across southwest VA northward into the southern mountains of WV. For now, will continued with the Superblend solution and made minor adjustments where needed. Overall, temperatures will be below normal over this period. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 600 PM Sunday... Showers and thunderstorms ahead and along an approaching cold front will increase in coverage and intensity across portions of southeast OH, and WV tonight. This activity will spread east, bringing showers to PKB around 05Z. As the cold front gets closer, rain showers are forecast to reach CRW and HTS by 08Z, and EKN and BKW in the eastern mountains by 09Z. This will bring MVFR to IFR conditions with the heavier showers or storms. Models suggest that the frontal system will weaken as it crosses WV. However, IFR low stratus and visibilities can occur along and behind the front, even after the rain ends. Gusty winds out of the southwest ahead of the front into tonight, and diminishing on Monday, while becoming north to northwest behind the front only as far southeast as the Ohio River through 18Z Monday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and effects of showers with the front may vary. A strong thunderstorm could impact HTS or PKB late tonight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 EST 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H L L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H L M M L L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H L L AFTER 00Z TUESDAY... IFR possible in stratus in and near the mountains Monday afternoon and night, and in rain Tuesday into Tuesday night. and then stratus again Wednesday morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for OHZ066-067. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JB/TRM NEAR TERM...ARJ/TRM SHORT TERM...JB LONG TERM...JB AVIATION...ARJ