994 FXUS62 KMHX 051505 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1005 AM EST Sun Nov 5 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will continue just inland today as a weak trough of low pressure lingers just off the coast. A cold front will approach from the northwest Monday then move through the area early Tuesday and stall south of area through the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 10 am Sunday...Visual satellite loop shows low clouds eroding along the coast at present and slowly spreading inland. The coastal plain will be the last to clear, probably not until early afternoon. Weak trof offshore will cont very small chc of shra near OBX. Thicknesses and some aftn sun support very mild highs in the 73 to 77 dgr range. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/... As of 230 PM Sat...Weakening high pres will cont over the region with again just very small chc of a shra imd cst. Light winds and lots of low lvl moisture will likely lead to another round of low clouds and some fog developing. Will remain mild with lows in the upr 50s to lower 60s inland and low to mid 60s beaches. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 230 AM Sunday...Near record warmth is expected Monday, which will give way to cooler and wetter weather for most of the upcoming week. A cold front will pass through Eastern NC from the north early Tuesday which is expected to stall south of the region. Then, a series of low pressure systems will develop along the front and bring additional rain and showers Wednesday into Thursday. Drier, but cooler weather is expected Friday and Saturday, as temperatures will feel more like mid-fall. Monday...A coastal trough will persist along the coast, and continue to produce showers which will mainly remain offshore, however some shower activity is possible along the immediate coast. Temperatures Monday will be very warm, with low level thicknesses suggesting upper 70s to low 80s on Monday. A few locations could flirt with record highs on Monday. Monday night through Thursday night...Latest model guidance shows the cold front entering the northern portion of the CWA late Monday night/early Tuesday morning. It will take a while for the column to moisten up so initially only expect a few showers across the region Tuesday, but increasing southern stream moisture and a series of weak low pressure areas will travel along the stalled front bringing better showers chances through the rest of the period. Some model differences persist with the placement of the stalled front and timing/strength of the low pressure areas but expect unsettled conditions to persist. Highs Tuesday expected in the upper 60s northern tier to mid 70s south, then upper 50s/lower 60s inland to mid 60s coast Wednesday and Thursday. Lows expected in the low/mid 50s inland to around 60 coast Wednesday morning, and 40s inland to 50s coast Thursday and Friday morning. Friday and Saturday...Drier weather is expected both Friday and Saturday as high pressure builds in from the north, though a few coastal showers are possible as the front may remain close enough offshore. High temps expected in the upper 50s to lower 60s Friday and a few degrees warmer for Saturday with lows Saturday morning in the upper 30s inland to upper 40s to low 50s near the coast. && .AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Short Term /through tonight/... As of 10 am Sun...Widespread IFR/LIFR stratus at all 4 terminals at present. Expect these conditions to continue through late morning, then transition to VFR late morn into early this aftn. VFR will cont into the evening then looks like some fog and stratus will again develop late tonight with some IFR or worse expected. Long Term /Monday through Thursday/... As of 230 AM Sunday...VFR conditions expected through Monday night, however patchy early morning fog is possible which could produce periods of sub-VFR conditions. A cold front will push south across the region early Tuesday with a strong low-level inversion developing and overrunning moisture, with periods of showers likely leading to a prolonged period of sub-VFR conditions behind the front that will persist through much of the mid-week period. && .MARINE... Short Term /through tonight/... As of 10 am Sunday...Fcst on track and no changes planned. Prev disc...Weakening high pres inland and weak trof offshore will lead to NE winds 5 to 15 kts early become E this aftn at 10 kt or less. As the high slides E tonight light SE winds will become more S to SW late. Some lingering 6 foot seas nrn wtrs shld drop to 5 feet before daybreak. E swells will keep seas in the 3 to 5 foot range today with most wtrs subsiding to 2 to 4 feet tonight...highest seas outer central and nrn wtrs. Long Term /Mon through Thursday/... As of 330 PM Saturday...SW winds gradually increase to 10-15 kt Monday, then a cold front will cross the waters late Monday night/early Tuesday with winds initially becoming N around 10-20 kt. N/NE winds weaken to 5-15 kt late Tuesday into early Wednesday with the front stalling just south of the area, but then expected to increase back to 10-20 kt late Wednesday through Thursday. Seas expected around 2-5 ft Monday through Wednesday morning, then build to 3-6 ft Wednesday afternoon and 4-7 ft Thursday. Highest seas expected across the central and northern waters. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RF NEAR TERM...HSA/RF SHORT TERM...RF LONG TERM...SK/SGK AVIATION...HSA/RF/SK MARINE...HSA/RF/SK